Predictors of Mortality From a Population-Based Cancer Registry Data in Jos, Nigeria: A Resource-Limited Setting

Abstract

Background: It is a well-documented fact that world-wide cancer incidence and mortality remains high in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected population despite potent antiretroviral therapy. With the current capture of HIV status of cancer patients in our cancer registry at Jos Nigeria, this study aims to assess the effect of HIV on cancer mortality outcomes. Methodology: We conducted a 2-year retrospective cohort study of cancer registry data from Jos, north central Nigeria. The cancers were grouped into cervical, breast, liver, hematologic, colonic, AIDS defining, prostate and others in this study. Patients were followed up to determine their patient time contribution from time at initiation of cancer treatment to death or the end of study period. Those lost to follow-up were censored at date of their last known follow-up in clinic. Results: Out of 930 cancer cases evaluated, 52 (5.6%) were HIV positive, 507 (54.5%) were HIV negative and 371 (39.9%) did not know their HIV status. After 525,223 person- days of follow-up, there were 232 deaths leading to a crude mortality rate of 4.3 per 10,000 person-days. Median survival probability for both HIV-infected and HIV uninfected patients were equal (1,013 days). Unadjusted hazard of death was associated with greater age, HR 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98,0.99, p = 0.002); hepatitis virus, HR 2.40 (95% CI: 1.69,3.43, p = 0.001); liver cancer, HR 2.25 (95% CI:1.11,4.55, p = 0.024); prostate cancer, HR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.06,0.393, p = 0.001). In an adjusted model, only prostate cancer AHR 0.23 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.42, p < 0.001) and liver cancer AHR 2.45 (95% CI: 1.78, 5.51, p < 0.001) remained significantly associated with death regardless of HIV status. Conclusion: Having liver cancer increases risk for mortality among our cancer patients. Screening, early detection and treatment are therefore key to improving dismal outcomes.

Keywords: Nigeria; cancer; cancer registry; human immunodeficiency virus; mortality.

Figure 1

Kaplan Meier estimation of survival stratified by HIV status (HIV positive = black/0; HIV negative = red/1). Log-rank test for equality of survivor functions: chi2 = 3.23; Pr>chi2 = 0.0722.