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. 2020 Jun 26;9(1):77.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-020-00688-1.

A close look at the biology of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential influence of weather conditions and seasons on COVID-19 case spread

Kamoru A Adedokun  1 , Ayodeji O Olarinmoye  2   3 , Jelili O Mustapha  4 , Ramat T Kamorudeen  5
Affiliations

A close look at the biology of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential influence of weather conditions and seasons on COVID-19 case spread

Kamoru A Adedokun et al. Infect Dis Poverty. .

Abstract

Background: There is sufficient epidemiological and biological evidence of increased human susceptibility to viral pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and influenza virus, in cold weather. The pattern of outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China during the flu season is further proof that meteorological conditions may potentially influence the susceptibility of human populations to coronaviruses, a situation that may become increasingly evident as the current global pandemic of COVID-19 unfolds.

Main body: A very rapid spread and high mortality rates have characterized the COVID-19 pandemic in countries north of the equator where air temperatures have been seasonally low. It is unclear if the currently high rates of COVID-19 infections in countries of the northern hemisphere will wane during the summer months, or if fewer people overall will become infected with COVID-19 in countries south of the equator where warmer weather conditions prevail through most of the year. However, apart from the influence of seasons, evidence based on the structural biology and biochemical properties of many enveloped viruses similar to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 (aetiology of COVID-19), support the higher likelihood of the latter of the two outcomes. Other factors that may potentially impact the rate of virus spread include the effectiveness of infection control practices, individual and herd immunity, and emergency preparedness levels of countries.

Conclusion: This report highlights the potential influence of weather conditions, seasons and non-climatological factors on the geographical spread of cases of COVID-19 across the globe.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case spread; Emergency preparedness; Human immunity; Infection control; SARS-CoV-2; Season.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The structural features of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its main structural proteins
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Global distribution of cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population (Source: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC); accessed 12 May 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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