Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco

Abstract

Background: Several statistical methods of variable complexity have been developed to establish thresholds for influenza activity that may be used to inform public health guidance. We compared the results of two methods and explored how they worked to characterize the 2018 influenza season performance-2018 season.

Methods: Historical data from the 2005/2006 to 2016/2018 influenza season performance seasons were provided by a network of 412 primary health centers in charge of influenza like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance. We used the WHO averages and the moving epidemic method (MEM) to evaluate the proportion of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations (ILI%) as a proxy for influenza activity. We also used the MEM method to evaluate three seasons of composite data (ILI% multiplied by percent of ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza) as recommended by WHO.

Results: The WHO method estimated the seasonal ILI% threshold at 0.9%. The annual epidemic period began on average at week 46 and lasted an average of 18 weeks. The MEM model estimated the epidemic threshold (corresponding to the WHO seasonal threshold) at 1.5% of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations. The annual epidemic period began on week 49 and lasted on average 14 weeks. Intensity thresholds were similar using both methods. When using the composite measure, the MEM method showed a clearer estimate of the beginning of the influenza epidemic, which was coincident with a sharp increase in confirmed ILI cases.

Conclusions: We found that the threshold methodology presented in the WHO manual is simple to implement and easy to adopt for use by the Moroccan influenza surveillance system. The MEM method is more statistically sophisticated and may allow a better detection of the start of seasonal epidemics. Incorporation of virologic data into the composite parameter as recommended by WHO has the potential to increase the accuracy of seasonal threshold estimation.

Keywords: Alert threshold; Average epidemic curve; Influenza seasonality; Seasonal threshold.

Fig. 1

Illustration of the WHO method: plot of the average epedemic curve, seasonal and intensity thresholds based on the weekly proportion of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits all among of outpatient consultations from 2005/2006 to 2016/2017 seasons and observed 2017/2018 season, Morocco

Fig. 2

Illustration of the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM): plot of the average epedemic curve, epidemic and intensity thresholds based on the weekly proportion of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits all among of outpatient consultations from 2005/2006 to 2016/2017 seasons and observed 2017/2018 season, Morocco

Fig. 3

Illustration of the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM): plot of the average epedemic curve, epidemic and intensity thresholds based on composite parameter ¹ from 2005/2006 to 2016/2017 seasons and observed 2017/2018 season, Morocco