. 2020 Aug 4;95(5):e519-e531.

doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000010022. Epub 2020 Jul 1.

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Frank J Wolters¹, Lori B Chibnik¹, Reem Waziry¹, Roy Anderson¹, Claudine Berr¹, Alexa Beiser¹, Joshua C Bis¹, Deborah Blacker¹, Daniel Bos¹, Carol Brayne¹, Jean-François Dartigues¹, Sirwan K L Darweesh¹, Kendra L Davis-Plourde¹, Frank de Wolf¹, Stephanie Debette¹, Carole Dufouil¹, Myriam Fornage¹, Jaap Goudsmit¹, Leslie Grasset¹, Vilmundur Gudnason¹, Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou¹, Catherine Helmer¹, M Arfan Ikram¹, M Kamran Ikram¹, Erik Joas¹, Silke Kern¹, Lewis H Kuller¹, Lenore Launer¹, Oscar L Lopez¹, Fiona E Matthews¹, Kevin McRae-McKee¹, Osorio Meirelles¹, Thomas H Mosley Jr¹, Matthew P Pase¹, Bruce M Psaty¹, Claudia L Satizabal¹, Sudha Seshadri¹, Ingmar Skoog¹, Blossom C M Stephan¹, Hanna Wetterberg¹, Mei Mei Wong¹, Anna Zettergren¹, Albert Hofman²

Affiliations

¹ From the Department of Epidemiology (F.J.W., L.B.C., R.W., D. Blacker, D. Bos, J.G., A.H.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; Departments of Epidemiology (F.J.W., D. Bos, S.K.L.D., M.A.I., M.K.I., A.H.), Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (D. Bos), and Neurology (M.K.I.), Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Neurology (L.B.C.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (R.A., F.d.W., C. Hadjichrysanthou, K.M.-M., M.M.W.), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; Neuropsychiatry and Epidemiology and Clinical Research (C. Berr), INSERM, UMR 1061 Montpellier, Universite de Montpellier, France; Boston University School of Medicine (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.); Framingham Heart Study (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.), MA; Department of Biostatistics (A.B., K.L.D.-P.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine (J.C.B., B.M.P.) and Epidemiology and Health Services (B.M.P.), University of Washington, Seattle; Department of Psychiatry (D. Blacker), Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown; University of Cambridge (C. Brayne), UK; Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (J.-F.D., S.D., C.D., L.G., C. Helmer), INSERM, UMR 1219, University of Bordeaux; Department of Neurology (S.D.), Memory Clinic, Bordeaux University Hospital, France; McGovern Medical School (M.F.), University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston; Icelandic Heart Association (V.G.), Kopavogur; Faculty of Medicine (V.G.), University of Iceland, Reykjavik; Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology (E.J., S.K., I.S., H.W., A.Z.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health (L.H.K.), and Departments of Neurology and Psychiatry (O.L.L.), University of Pittsburgh, PA; Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences (L.L., O.M.), National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, MD; Institute of Health and Society (F.E.M., B.C.M.S.), Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; MIND Center (T.H.M.), University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson; Melbourne Dementia Research Centre (M.P.P.), The Florey Institute for Neuroscience and Mental Health, Melbourne, Australia; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (B.M.P.), Seattle; and The Glenn Biggs Institute for Alzheimer's & Neurodegenerative Diseases (C.L.S., S.S.), UT Health San Antonio, TX.
² From the Department of Epidemiology (F.J.W., L.B.C., R.W., D. Blacker, D. Bos, J.G., A.H.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; Departments of Epidemiology (F.J.W., D. Bos, S.K.L.D., M.A.I., M.K.I., A.H.), Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (D. Bos), and Neurology (M.K.I.), Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Neurology (L.B.C.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (R.A., F.d.W., C. Hadjichrysanthou, K.M.-M., M.M.W.), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; Neuropsychiatry and Epidemiology and Clinical Research (C. Berr), INSERM, UMR 1061 Montpellier, Universite de Montpellier, France; Boston University School of Medicine (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.); Framingham Heart Study (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.), MA; Department of Biostatistics (A.B., K.L.D.-P.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine (J.C.B., B.M.P.) and Epidemiology and Health Services (B.M.P.), University of Washington, Seattle; Department of Psychiatry (D. Blacker), Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown; University of Cambridge (C. Brayne), UK; Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (J.-F.D., S.D., C.D., L.G., C. Helmer), INSERM, UMR 1219, University of Bordeaux; Department of Neurology (S.D.), Memory Clinic, Bordeaux University Hospital, France; McGovern Medical School (M.F.), University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston; Icelandic Heart Association (V.G.), Kopavogur; Faculty of Medicine (V.G.), University of Iceland, Reykjavik; Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology (E.J., S.K., I.S., H.W., A.Z.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health (L.H.K.), and Departments of Neurology and Psychiatry (O.L.L.), University of Pittsburgh, PA; Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences (L.L., O.M.), National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, MD; Institute of Health and Society (F.E.M., B.C.M.S.), Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; MIND Center (T.H.M.), University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson; Melbourne Dementia Research Centre (M.P.P.), The Florey Institute for Neuroscience and Mental Health, Melbourne, Australia; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (B.M.P.), Seattle; and The Glenn Biggs Institute for Alzheimer's & Neurodegenerative Diseases (C.L.S., S.S.), UT Health San Antonio, TX. ahofman@hsph.harvard.edu.

PMID: 32611641
PMCID: PMC7455342
DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000010022

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Frank J Wolters et al. Neurology. 2020.

. 2020 Aug 4;95(5):e519-e531.

doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000010022. Epub 2020 Jul 1.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ From the Department of Epidemiology (F.J.W., L.B.C., R.W., D. Blacker, D. Bos, J.G., A.H.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; Departments of Epidemiology (F.J.W., D. Bos, S.K.L.D., M.A.I., M.K.I., A.H.), Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (D. Bos), and Neurology (M.K.I.), Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Neurology (L.B.C.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (R.A., F.d.W., C. Hadjichrysanthou, K.M.-M., M.M.W.), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; Neuropsychiatry and Epidemiology and Clinical Research (C. Berr), INSERM, UMR 1061 Montpellier, Universite de Montpellier, France; Boston University School of Medicine (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.); Framingham Heart Study (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.), MA; Department of Biostatistics (A.B., K.L.D.-P.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine (J.C.B., B.M.P.) and Epidemiology and Health Services (B.M.P.), University of Washington, Seattle; Department of Psychiatry (D. Blacker), Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown; University of Cambridge (C. Brayne), UK; Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (J.-F.D., S.D., C.D., L.G., C. Helmer), INSERM, UMR 1219, University of Bordeaux; Department of Neurology (S.D.), Memory Clinic, Bordeaux University Hospital, France; McGovern Medical School (M.F.), University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston; Icelandic Heart Association (V.G.), Kopavogur; Faculty of Medicine (V.G.), University of Iceland, Reykjavik; Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology (E.J., S.K., I.S., H.W., A.Z.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health (L.H.K.), and Departments of Neurology and Psychiatry (O.L.L.), University of Pittsburgh, PA; Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences (L.L., O.M.), National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, MD; Institute of Health and Society (F.E.M., B.C.M.S.), Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; MIND Center (T.H.M.), University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson; Melbourne Dementia Research Centre (M.P.P.), The Florey Institute for Neuroscience and Mental Health, Melbourne, Australia; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (B.M.P.), Seattle; and The Glenn Biggs Institute for Alzheimer's & Neurodegenerative Diseases (C.L.S., S.S.), UT Health San Antonio, TX.
² From the Department of Epidemiology (F.J.W., L.B.C., R.W., D. Blacker, D. Bos, J.G., A.H.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; Departments of Epidemiology (F.J.W., D. Bos, S.K.L.D., M.A.I., M.K.I., A.H.), Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (D. Bos), and Neurology (M.K.I.), Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Neurology (L.B.C.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (R.A., F.d.W., C. Hadjichrysanthou, K.M.-M., M.M.W.), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; Neuropsychiatry and Epidemiology and Clinical Research (C. Berr), INSERM, UMR 1061 Montpellier, Universite de Montpellier, France; Boston University School of Medicine (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.); Framingham Heart Study (A.B., M.P.P., C.L.S., S.S.), MA; Department of Biostatistics (A.B., K.L.D.-P.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine (J.C.B., B.M.P.) and Epidemiology and Health Services (B.M.P.), University of Washington, Seattle; Department of Psychiatry (D. Blacker), Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown; University of Cambridge (C. Brayne), UK; Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (J.-F.D., S.D., C.D., L.G., C. Helmer), INSERM, UMR 1219, University of Bordeaux; Department of Neurology (S.D.), Memory Clinic, Bordeaux University Hospital, France; McGovern Medical School (M.F.), University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston; Icelandic Heart Association (V.G.), Kopavogur; Faculty of Medicine (V.G.), University of Iceland, Reykjavik; Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology (E.J., S.K., I.S., H.W., A.Z.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health (L.H.K.), and Departments of Neurology and Psychiatry (O.L.L.), University of Pittsburgh, PA; Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences (L.L., O.M.), National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, MD; Institute of Health and Society (F.E.M., B.C.M.S.), Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK; MIND Center (T.H.M.), University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson; Melbourne Dementia Research Centre (M.P.P.), The Florey Institute for Neuroscience and Mental Health, Melbourne, Australia; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (B.M.P.), Seattle; and The Glenn Biggs Institute for Alzheimer's & Neurodegenerative Diseases (C.L.S., S.S.), UT Health San Antonio, TX. ahofman@hsph.harvard.edu.

PMID: 32611641
PMCID: PMC7455342
DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000010022

Abstract

Objective: To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.

Methods: This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.

Results: Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]).

Conclusion: The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

**Figure 1. Incidence rates of dementia, stratified by cohort and age group**
AGES–Reykjavik Study = Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study; CFAS = Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies; FHS = Framingham Heart Study; PAQUID = Personnes Agées QUID.

**Figure 2. Incidence rates of dementia by age group, comparing men vs women**

**Figure 3. Trends in the incidence of dementia**
The forest plots represent the incidence trend for (A) all-cause dementia, (B) Alzheimer disease, (C) all-cause dementia in men, and (D) all-cause dementia in women, expressed as a hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year advance in calendar time. This HR was calculated to compare temporal trends across studies, and can be interpreted as a change in the 5-year hazard per decade advance in calendar time. 3C = Three-City Study; CFAS = Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies; CI = confidence interval; FHS = Framingham Heart Study; RS = Rotterdam Study.

**Figure 4. Projected incidence of dementia in millions**
Projected yearly incidence of dementia on the basis of current rates (solid lines) and projected incidence of dementia assuming continuation of a decreasing trend (dashed lines). Current rates are based on estimates from the 2012 World Alzheimer Report, which at the time estimated that 682 million new cases would occur over the 2010 to 2050 period.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

1. Global Burden of Disease Study Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015;386:743–800. - PMC - PubMed
1. Alzheimer’s Disease International. Policy Brief for G8 Heads of Government: The Global Impact of Dementia 2013–2050 [online]. Available at: alz.co.uk/research/G8-policy-brief. Accessed May 20, 2019.
1. WHO. First WHO Ministerial Conference on Global Action Against Dementia [Internet]. Available at: hoint/mental_health/neurology/dementia/ministerial_conference_2015_repor.... Accessed February 25, 2018.
1. Grasset L, Brayne C, Joly P, et al. . Trends in dementia incidence: evolution over a 10-year period in France. Alzheimers Dement 2016;12:272–280. - PubMed
1. Matthews FE, Stephan BC, Robinson L, et al. . A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II. Nat Commun 2016;7:11398. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types

Actions
Actions
Actions

MeSH terms

Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources
Medical
- MedlinePlus Health Information
Miscellaneous
- NCI CPTAC Assay Portal

Save citation to file

Email citation

Add to Collections

Add to My Bibliography

Your saved search

Create a file for external citation management software

Your RSS Feed

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Affiliations

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Figures

References

Publication types

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical

Miscellaneous