Echocardiographic Predictors of Recoarctation After Surgical Repair: A Swedish National Study

Abstract

Background: After surgical repair of aortic coarctation (CoA) there is a risk for restenosis (reCoA), particularly in the first year of life. This study aimed to identify reCoA risk factors by analyzing postoperative predischarge echocardiograms.

Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of echocardiograms of children born operated on for CoA in Sweden in 2011 to 2017.

Results: A total of 253 children were included. Median age at surgery was 10 days; median follow-up was 4.6 years. Risk for restenosis occurred in 34 patients (13%; 74% by 6 months and 91% by 12 months). We generated 2 reCoA risk models applying aortic dimensions and the respective Z-scores combined with surgical and demographic factors. We defined reCoA risk categories as low (≤10%), moderate (11% to 29%), moderate to high (30% to 49%), or high (≥50%). Patients with either isthmus of 3.3 mm or less (1- and 5-year event-free survival of 38% and 32%, respectively) or isthmus Z-score of -2.8 or less with a weight at surgery of less than 4.4 kg (1- and 5-year event free survival of 21% and 16%, respectively) were at highest risk for reCoA. Conversely, patients at low risk had isthmus greater than 3.7 mm and distal aortic arch greater than 3.5mm (1- and 5-year event free survival of 97% and 97%, respectively), and isthmus and proximal aortic arch Z-score greater than -2.8 or operative weight greater than 4.4 kg with an isthmus Z-score of -2.8 or less (1- and 5-year event-free survival of 97% and 97%, respectively).

Conclusions: Risk for reCoA can be predicted based on postoperative predischarge echocardiographic variables combined with surgical and demographic factors. We suggest tailoring follow-up intervals individually according to the predicted reCoA risk.