Five-year mortality trends associated with chronic pancreatitis in South Korea: A population based cohort study

Abstract

Background: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is associated with all-cause and cancer-related mortality; however, the risk of mortality associated with alcoholic and non-alcoholic CP remains controversial. This study investigated whether CP increased the risk of 5-year all-cause and cancer-specific mortality compared to a control population.

Methods: This population-based study used data from a sample cohort of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database in South Korea. CP was defined as disease code K86.0 (alcohol-induced CP) and K86.1 (other CP and non-alcoholic CP) from the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases.

Results: The prevalence of chronic alcoholic pancreatitis increased from 0.01% in 2002 to 0.07% in 2015, and the prevalence of chronic non-alcoholic pancreatitis increased from 0.08% in 2002 to 0.50% in 2015. In the 2010 NHIS cohort (n = 826,909), CP was associated with an increased risk of 5-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.66, P < 0.001). Additionally, non-alcoholic CP was associated with an increased risk of 5-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.71, P < 0.001); in contrast, alcohol-induced CP was not significantly associated with mortality risk (P = 0.569). Similar tendencies were observed for the 5-year cancer-related mortality risk.

Conclusions: In South Korea, the prevalence of alcoholic and non-alcoholic CP increased during 2002-2015. CP may be an independent risk factor for 5-year all-cause and cancer-related mortality. In this study, this association was more evident in patients with non-alcoholic CP.

Keywords: Chronic pancreatitis; Mortality; Neoplasms; Population.