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. 2020;4(2):56-64.
doi: 10.3897/popecon.4.e53492. Epub 2020 Apr 30.

Patterns of mortality during pandemic: An example of Spanish flu pandemic of 1918

Natalia S Gavrilova  1 , Leonid A Gavrilov  1
Affiliations

Patterns of mortality during pandemic: An example of Spanish flu pandemic of 1918

Natalia S Gavrilova et al. Popul Econ. 2020.

Abstract

Now the attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. This article discusses mortality patterns of the deadliest epidemic in the last 120 years - the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Statistical sources from Italy and the USA, published shortly after the pandemic, were analyzed. The analysis was carried out for mortality from all causes, since in this case inaccuracies associated with establishing the causes of death are minimized. Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate. The main peak of mortality in 1918 occurred in October 1918 both in the USA and Italy, with a gradual decrease in mortality over several months. Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20-50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917. Analysis of mortality trends using the method of latent variables shows a significant increase in the background mortality factor in 1918, which turned out to be higher for Italy than the mortality losses during the Second World War. The Spanish flu pandemic differs from the current coronavirus pandemic, because of significant increase in mortality of middle-aged people, while the COVID-19 pandemic causes a more marked increase in mortality among the elderly. With this, the COVID-19 pandemic is more like the recent flu epidemics than the earlier Spanish flu pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; I1; J0; J1; Spanish flu pandemic; infections; mortality.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Crude death rate (per 1000 population), by calendar year in Italy. Source: MAIC 1924, ,
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Crude death rate (per 1000 population), by calendar year in the United States. Source: Bureau of the Census 1943
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Crude death rates by month (per 1000 population) in Italy starting from January 1918. Rates computed on an annual basis. Source: authors’ estimations based on (MAIC 1924, 1925a, 1925b)
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Crude death rates by month (per 1000 population) in Italy in 1916–1919. Rates computed on an annual basis. Source: authors’ estimations based on (MAIC 1924, 1925a, 1925b)
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Deaths from influenza in Italy (in thousand), by calendar year. Source: MAIC 1924, ,
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Crude death rates by month (per 1000 population) in the United States in 1918–1919. Rates computed on an annual basis. Source: authors’ estimations based on (Bureau of the Census 1943)
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Age-specific death rates for Italian women in 1917, 1918 and 1919. Source: Human Mortality Database
Figure 8.
Figure 8.
Age-specific death rates for Italian women after age 65 in 1917, 1918 and 1919. Source: Human Mortality Database
Figure 9.
Figure 9.
Senescent («old») and background («young») factors of mortality for Italian women. Source: authors’ estimations
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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