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. 2020:42:e2020050.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2020050. Epub 2020 Jul 6.

Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation and daily forecasting of scorpion sting counts in Touggourt, Algeria

Kaouthar Boubekeur  1 , Mohamed L'Hadj  2 , Schehrazad Selmane  1
Affiliations

Demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation and daily forecasting of scorpion sting counts in Touggourt, Algeria

Kaouthar Boubekeur et al. Epidemiol Health. 2020.

Abstract

Objectives: This study was conducted to provide better insights into the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of scorpion envenomation in an endemic area in Algeria and to identify the model that best predicted daily scorpion sting counts.

Methods: Daily sting data from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2016 were extracted from questionnaires designed to elicit information on scorpion stings from the two emergency medical service providers in Touggourt, Algeria. Count regression models were applied to the daily sting data.

Results: A total of 4,712 scorpion sting cases were documented, of which 70% occurred in people aged between 10 years and 49 years. The male-to-female ratio was 1.3. The upper and lower limbs were the most common locations of scorpion stings (90.4% of cases). Most stings (92.8%) were mild. The percent of people stung inside dwellings was 68.8%. The hourly distribution of stings showed a peak between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. The daily number of stings ranged from 0 to 24. The occurrence of stings was highest on Sundays. The incidence of scorpion stings increased sharply in the summer. The mean annual incidence rate was 542 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The fitted count regression models showed that a negative binomial hurdle model was appropriate for forecasting daily stings in terms of temperature and relative humidity, and the fitted data agreed considerably with the actual data.

Conclusions: This study showed that daily scorpion sting data provided meaningful insights; and the negative binomial Hurdle model was preferable for predicting daily scorpion sting counts.

Keywords: Algeria; Data analysis; Scorpion stings; Statistical models; Touggourt.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare for this study.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Spatial distribution map of scorpion sting incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in Touggourt, for the years 2013, 2014, and 2015.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Frequencies of daily scorpion stings in Touggourt from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2016.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
(A) Seasonal average and monthly average of recorded scorpion sting cases in Touggourt in the period 2013-2015 and (B) the hourly breakdown of scorpion sting cases.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Scatter plots of predicted versus actual of scorpion sting cases from January to August 2016, (A) weekly data, (B) monthly data.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Chippaux JP, Goyffon M. Epidemiology of scorpionism: a global appraisal. Acta Trop. 2008;107:71–79. - PubMed
    1. Vachon M. Etudes sur les scorpions. 1952 [cited 2020 Apr 24]. Available from: http://www.ntnu.no/ub/scorpion-files/vachon.php (French)
    1. Selmane S. Scorpion envenomations and climate conditions: the case of Naama Province in Algeria. Int J Math Models Methods Appl Sci. 2015;9:261–268.
    1. Ministry of Health, Population and Hospital Refor . National committee for the fight against the scorpion envenomment. Support for scorpion envenomation. Algiers: Prevention Department; 2009. pp. 7–40. (French)
    1. Ministry of Health, Population and Hospital Reform, Prevention Department Instruction no 04 / MSPRH / DP of March 4, 2012 on the new plan of notification and management of scorpionic envenomation cases. [cited 2020 Apr 24]. Available from: http://www.sante.dz/inst_env_scorp.pdf (French)

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