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Observational Study
. 2020 Jun;32(2):213-223.
doi: 10.5935/0103-507x.20200028. Epub 2020 May 22.

Progression of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the implementation of control measures

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Bianca Brandão de Paula Antunes  1 , Igor Tona Peres  1 , Fernanda Araújo Baião  1 , Otavio Tavares Ranzani  2 , Leonardo Dos Santos Lourenço Bastos  1 , Amanda de Araújo Batista da Silva  1 , Guilherme Faveret Garcia de Souza  1 , Janaina Figueira Marchesi  3 , Leila Figueiredo Dantas  1 , Soraida Aguilar Vargas  1 , Paula Maçaira  1 , Silvio Hamacher  1 , Fernando Augusto Bozza  4
Affiliations
Observational Study

Progression of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the implementation of control measures

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Bianca Brandão de Paula Antunes et al. Rev Bras Ter Intensiva. 2020 Jun.

Abstract
in English, Portuguese

Objective: To analyse the measures adopted by countries that have shown control over the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and how each curve of accumulated cases behaved after the implementation of those measures.

Methods: The methodology adopted for this study comprises three phases: systemizing control measures adopted by different countries, identifying structural breaks in the growth of the number of cases for those countries, and analyzing Brazilian data in particular.

Results: We noted that China (excluding Hubei Province), Hubei Province, and South Korea have been effective in their deceleration of the growth rates of COVID-19 cases. The effectiveness of the measures taken by these countries could be seen after 1 to 2 weeks of their application. In Italy and Spain, control measures at the national level were taken at a late stage of the epidemic, which could have contributed to the high propagation of COVID-19. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo adopted measures that could be effective in slowing the propagation of the virus. However, we only expect to see their effects on the growth of the curve in the coming days.

Conclusion: Our results may help decisionmakers in countries in relatively early stages of the epidemic, especially Brazil, understand the importance of control measures in decelerating the growth curve of confirmed cases.

Objetivo: Analisar as medidas adotadas por países que demonstraram controle sobre a transmissão da doença pelo novo coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) e também como cada curva de casos acumulados se comportou após a implantação dessas medidas.

Métodos: A metodologia adotada para este estudo compreendeu três fases: sistematização das medidas de controle adotadas por diferentes países, identificação dos pontos de inflexão na curva do crescimento do número de casos nesses países e análise específica dos dados brasileiros.

Resultados: Observamos que China (excluindo-se Hubei), Hubei e Coreia do Sul foram eficazes na desaceleração das taxas de crescimento dos casos de COVID-19. A eficácia das medidas tomadas por esses países pode ser observada após 1 ou 2 semanas de sua aplicação. Na Itália e Espanha, foram tomadas medidas de controle em nível nacional em uma fase tardia da epidemia, o que pode ter contribuído para a elevada propagação da COVID-19. No Brasil, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo adotaram medidas que podem ter sido eficazes na redução da rapidez da propagação do vírus, entretanto, só temos expectativa de ver seus efeitos no crescimento da curva nos próximos dias.

Conclusão: Nossos resultados podem ajudar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões em países em estágios relativamente precoces da epidemia, especialmente no Brasil, a compreenderem a importância das medidas de controle para desaceleração da curva de crescimento de casos confirmados.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of interest: None.

Responsible editor: Felipe Dal-Pizzol

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases, starting on the day that each country reached 50 cases. China’s data do not include those of Hubei Province.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Hubei on arithmetic (left) and logarithmic (right) scales, showing the dates of the control measures.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Hubei on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the control measures and breakpoints.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in China (excluding Hubei Province) on arithmetic (left) and logarithmic (right) scales, showing the date of the control measure.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in China (excluding Hubei Province) on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the date of the control measure (in blue) and the breakpoints (in red).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in South Korea on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the control measures.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in South Korea, on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the control measures and breakpoints.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Italy on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the control measures.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Italy, on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the control measures and breakpoints.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in the provinces of Lombardy, Italy, until March 17, 2020 (on a logarithmic scale).
Figure 11
Figure 11
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Spain, on arithmetic and logarithmic scales, showing the dates of the national control measure.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in the regions of Spain until March 17, 2020 (on a logarithmic scale).
Figure 13
Figure 13
Evolution of the number of confirmed cases in Brazil and in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, on an arithmetic scale, showing the dates of the control measures.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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