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. 2020 Jul 16;16(1):64.
doi: 10.1186/s12992-020-00590-3.

Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending - comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countries

Mihajlo Jakovljevic  1   2   3 , Yuriy Timofeyev  4 , Chhabi Lal Ranabhat  5   6 , Paula Odete Fernandes  7 , João Paulo Teixeira  8 , Nemanja Rancic  9 , Vladimir Reshetnikov  10
Affiliations

Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending - comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countries

Mihajlo Jakovljevic et al. Global Health. .

Abstract

Background: Accelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries.

Results: In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita.

Conclusion: The EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.

Keywords: EM7; G7; Healthcare expenditure; Out-of-pocket expenditure; Real GDP growth.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Gross Domestic Product in million current PPP (constant 2011 international USD) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2015. Source: IMF
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Real GDP growth (Annual percent change) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2017. Source: IMF
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Unemployment rate (Percent) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2017. Source: IMF
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Current Health Expenditure (CHE) as percentage of GDP in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2016. Source: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Current Health Expenditure (CHE) per Capita in PPP (current international USD) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2016. Source: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Domestic General Government Health Expenditure (GGHE-D) as a percentage Current Health Expenditure (CHE) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2016. Source: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Out-of-Pocket Expenditure (OOPS) per Capita in PPP International USD in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2016. Source: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Out-of-Pocket (OOPS) as a percentage of Current Health Expenditure (CHE) in the G7 and the EM7 in 2000–2016, Source: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database
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