Homogeneous Distribution of Passing between Players of a Team Predicts Attempts to Shoot at Goal in Association Football: A Case Study with 10 Matches

Abstract

This paper presents a case study which aims to establish a relationship between the homogeneity of passing distribution between players of a team and goal attempts in the team sport of association football. We observed data from 10 competitive football matches, involving 10 different professional football teams of different performance levels, competing in the Portuguese League during the 2010/2011 season. Performance data were analysed using the Match Analysis Software Amisco. Shannon's entropy measure was used to quantify the homogeneity of passing distribution within each team. Results suggested the existence of a pattern between an increase in the homogeneity of passing distributions and the attempts to scoring goals in the sample of competitive matches studied. A homogeneous distribution of passes can moderately predict (approximately 45% of accuracy) when a goal attempt will occur within the following minute of an entropy assessment.