Secular trends of stroke incidence and mortality in China, 1990 to 2016: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract

Background: The impact of socioeconomic developments on stroke incidence and mortality must be understood to target prevention strategies appropriately. We assessed the secular trends in stroke incidence and mortality in China based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Methods: Trends of stroke incidence and mortality of China was described in different categories of age, sex and stroke type using the GBD study database. Also a comparative study was conducted between China and Japan, U.S. to find reasonable references for development. Secular trends in incidence and mortality (per 100,000 population) were assessed for stroke, including ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke from 1990 to 2016. Population pyramid was used to illustrate changes in age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates.

Results: During the study period, stroke incidence in China increased from 204.52 to 403.08 and mortality increased from 122.09 to 130.94; the corresponding age-standardized rates changed from 335.63 to 353.70 and from 231.28 to 132.84, respectively. Among those aged 15-49 and 50-69 years, the incidence rates of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke both tended to increase, whereas the mortality rates tended to decline in all age groups. The incidence and mortality were highest among those aged ≥70 years. Compared with the U.S. and Japan, age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality were higher in China.

Conclusions: Although the incidence of stroke has increased in China, overall mortality has decreased. A priority of stroke prevention and control strategies will transition from reducing mortality to controlling the incidence in at-risk populations.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease; Hemorrhagic stroke; Incidence; Ischemic stroke; Mortality; Stroke.