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Comment
. 2020 Sep 1;222(7):1090-1097.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa436.

Global Seasonality of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses: A Clue for Postpandemic Circulating Season of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2?

You Li  1 , Xin Wang  1 , Harish Nair  1   2
Affiliations
Comment

Global Seasonality of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses: A Clue for Postpandemic Circulating Season of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2?

You Li et al. J Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could recur as seasonal outbreaks, a circulating pattern observed among other preexisting human seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs). However, little is known about seasonality of sCoVs on a global scale.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review of data on seasonality of sCoVs. We compared seasonality of sCoVs with influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus. We modeled monthly activity of sCoVs using site-specific weather data.

Results: We included sCoV seasonality data in 40 sites from 21 countries. sCoVs were prevalent in winter months in most temperate sites except for China, whereas sCoVs tended to be less seasonal in China and in tropical sites. In temperate sites excluding China, 53.1% of annual sCoV cases (interquartile range [IQR], 34.6%-61.9%) occurred during influenza season and 49.6% (IQR, 30.2%-60.2%) of sCoV cases occurred during respiratory syncytial virus season. Low temperature combined with high relative humidity was associated with higher sCoV activity.

Conclusions: This is the first study that provides an overview of the global seasonality of sCoVs. Our findings offer clues to the possible postpandemic circulating season of SARS-CoV-2 and add to the knowledge pool necessary for postpandemic preparedness for SARS-CoV-2.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; human coronavirus; relative humidity; seasonality; temperature.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flowchart. *Other reasons include no full texts (3) and review article (1). Abbreviation: CoV, coronavirus.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Study sites included in the analysis.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Heat maps of global monthly activity of seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs), influenza virus (IFV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). For each site, the results of IFV and RSV for the same site were presented for comparison. The y-axis shows the countries where the data were from and the latitude of sites (references are shown in the Supplementary Appendix). Numbers on the right side denote the total number of sCoV cases. Six studies that did not report sCoVs (of all species) were excluded.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Heat maps of global monthly activity of alphacoronaviruses and betacoronaviruses. The y-axis shows the countries where the data were from and the latitude of sites (references are shown in the Supplementary Appendix). Numbers on the right side denote the total number of seasonal coronavirus cases. Abbreviations: AAP, annual average percentage; sCoV, seasonal coronavirus.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Heat maps of global monthly activity of seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs), by species. The y-axis shows the countries where the data were from and the latitude of sites (references are shown in the Supplementary Appendix). Numbers on the right side denote the total number of sCoV cases.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Model-predicted output of monthly activity of coronavirus against mean-centered dew point and relative humidity (A) and mean-centered temperature and relative humidity (B). Only sites with ≥100 seasonal coronavirus cases were included in the model. Abbreviation: AAP, annual average percentage.
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