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. 2020 Nov;46(11):1530-1533.
doi: 10.1097/j.jcrs.0000000000000337.

COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries

Shruti Aggarwal  1 , Punya Jain, Amit Jain
Affiliations

COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries

Shruti Aggarwal et al. J Cataract Refract Surg. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

Purpose: To forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19.

Setting: Medicare Beneficiaries, United States.

Design: Epidemiologic modeling.

Methods: Baseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions.

Results: Assuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future.

Conclusions: Suspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data may aid physicians, payers, and policymakers in planning for postpandemic recovery.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Monte Carlo simulation of elective cataract surgeries among Medicare beneficiaries in the United States post-COVID. Forecasted cataract surgery volume per month.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Backlog of cataract surgeries post-COVID. Forecasted cumulative backlog of cataract surgeries over time.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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