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. 2020 Aug;44(4):257-259.
doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13016. Epub 2020 Jul 22.

Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans

Adeshina Adekunle  1 , Michael Meehan  1 , Diana Rojas-Alvarez  2 , James Trauer  3 , Emma McBryde  1
Affiliations

Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans

Adeshina Adekunle et al. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

Objective: Following the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease named COVID-19, in Wuhan, China in late 2019, countries have implemented different interventions such as travel bans to slow the spread of this novel virus. This brief report evaluates the effect of travel bans imposed to prevent COVID-19 importation in the Australian context.

Methods: We developed a stochastic meta-population model to capture the global dynamics and spread of COVID-19. By adjusting our model to capture the travel bans imposed globally and in Australia, the predicted COVID-19 cases imported to Australia were evaluated in comparison to observed imported cases.

Results: Our modelling results closely aligned with observed cases in Australia and elsewhere. We observed a 79% reduction in COVID-19 importation and a delay of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia by approximately one month. Further projection of COVID-19 to May 2020 showed spread patterns depending on the basic reproduction number.

Conclusion: Imposing the travel ban was effective in delaying widespread transmission of COVID-19. However, strengthening of the domestic control measures is needed to prevent Australia from becoming another epicentre. Implications for public health: This report has shown the importance of border closure to pandemic control.

Keywords: COVID-19; basic reproduction number; mathematical modelling; travel ban.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cumulative imported cases of COVID‐19 as at January 31, 2020 for the 19 countries. The median cumulative importation and interquartile ranges from 1,000 simulations of the stochastic meta‐population model are shown in blue, while the observed imported COVID‐19 cases are shown in red for each country.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Travel Ban effect on COVID‐19 importation to Australia. Cumulative importation to Australia in the absence of travel ban (A) and with travel bans (B). The reported imported COVID‐19 cases and interquartile ranges from 1000 simulations are also shown for each travel scenario.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The effects of reduction in transmission rate on the local transmission. The y‐axis shows cumulative local cases from our simulations on a log scale (red‐ no travel ban, green‐ travel ban and blue ‐ travel ban with reduced transmission rate). The black points are the observed cumulative cases.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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