Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score as a Predictor of Hospital Mortality in Patients of Coronavirus Disease 2019

Abstract

Objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 has emerged as a major global health threat with a great number of deaths in China. We aimed to assess the association between Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019, and to compare the predictive ability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 (CURB65) score.

Design: Retrospective observational cohort.

Setting: Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China.

Subjects: Confirmed patients with coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalized in the ICU of Tongji hospital from January 10, 2020, to February 10, 2020.

Interventions: None.

Measurements and main results: Of 178 potentially eligible patients with symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019, 23 patients (12.92%) were diagnosed as suspected cases, and one patient (0.56%) suffered from cardiac arrest immediately after admission. Ultimately, 154 patients were enrolled in the analysis and 52 patients (33.77%) died. Mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (23.23 ± 6.05) was much higher in deaths compared with the mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of 10.87 ± 4.40 in survivors (p < 0.001). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was independently associated with hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13). In predicting hospital mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score demonstrated better discriminative ability (area under the curve, 0.966; 95% CI, 0.942-0.990) than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (area under the curve, 0.867; 95% CI, 0.808-0.926) and CURB65 score (area under the curve, 0.844; 95% CI, 0.784-0.905). Based on the cut-off value of 17, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score could predict the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 with a sensitivity of 96.15% and a specificity of 86.27%. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the survivor probability of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score less than 17 was notably higher than that of patients with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score greater than or equal to 17 (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was an effective clinical tool to predict hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 compared with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and CURB65 score. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score greater than or equal to 17 serves as an early warning indicator of death and may provide guidance to make further clinical decisions.

Figure 1.

Receiver operating characteristic curve for the predicted value of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 (CURB65) scores for the mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 patients. AUC = area under the curve.

Figure 2.

Kaplan-Meier survival curves of the coronavirus disease 2019 patients stratification by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score.