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. 2020 Oct;26(5):1344-1346.
doi: 10.1111/jep.13443. Epub 2020 Jul 22.

The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence

Bjørn Hofmann  1   2
Affiliations

The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence

Bjørn Hofmann. J Eval Clin Pract. 2020 Oct.

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 has posed a wide range of urgent questions: about the disease, testing, immunity, treatments, and outcomes. Extreme situations, such as pandemics, call for exceptional measures. However, this threatens the production and application of evidence.

Methods: This article applies standard categories in epistemology to analyse the pandemic in terms of four kinds of uncertainty: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance, and Ambiguity.

Results: Mapping the uncertainties of the pandemic onto the four types of uncertainty directs evidence production towards specific tasks in order to address the challenges of the pandemic: Eliminating ambiguity, being alert to the unknown, and gathering data to estimate risks are crucial to preserve evidence and save lives.

Conclusion: In order to avoid fake facts and to provide sustainable solutions, we need to pay attention to the various kinds of uncertainty. Producing high-quality evidence is the solution, not the problem.

Keywords: ambiguity; evidence; ignorance; risk; uncertainty.

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Conflict of interest statement

I certify that there is no actual or potential conflict of interest in relation to this manuscript, and there are no financial arrangements or arrangements with respect to the content of this comment with any companies or organizations.

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