Effect of temperature and humidity on the dynamics of daily new cases and deaths due to COVID-19 outbreak in Gulf countries in Middle East Region

Abstract

Objective: Weather-related dynamics have an impact on the pattern of health and disease. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and daily new deaths due to COVID-19 in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the Middle East.

Materials and methods: We selected all the six GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. This region has a relatively high temperature and humidity, and has homogenous Arab ethnicity with a similar socioeconomic culture. The data on the global outbreak of COVID-19, including daily new cases and deaths were recorded from World Health Organization. The information on daily temperature and humidity was obtained from world climate web "Time and Date". The daily basis, mean temperature and humidity were recorded from the date of appearance of first case of COVID-19 in the region, Jan 29, 2020 to May 15, 2020. We also evaluated the growth factor, "a ratio by which a quantity multiplies itself over time; it equals daily cases divided by cases on the previous day".

Results: In GCC countries, the daily basis mean temperature from Jan 29, 2020 to May 15, 2020 was 29.20±0.30°C and humidity was 37.95±4.40%. The results revealed that there was a negative correlation and decrease in the number of daily cases and deaths from COVID-19 with increase in humidity in Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The correlation coefficient between temperature with daily cases shows that an increase in temperature was associated with an increase in daily cases and deaths due to COVID-19, however, the temperature is still gradually rising in the region. The growth factor result for daily cases was 1.09±0.00 and daily deaths was 1.07±0.03 for COVID-19, and shows declining trends in GCC region.

Conclusions: An increase in relative humidity was associated with a decrease in the number of daily cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in GCC countries. The daily growth factor for patients and deaths shows a declining trend. However, the climate is swiftly changing in the region; further studies may be conducted during the peak of summer season. The findings have outcomes for policymakers and health officials about the impact of temperature and humidity on epidemiological trends of daily new cases and deaths due to COVID-19.