Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19

Abstract

We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.

Keywords: COVID-19; SIR model; age; epidemics; structured population.