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. 2020 Jul 29;10(1):12693.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-69579-7.

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

Caleb D McMahan  1 , César E Fuentes-Montejo  2 , Luke Ginger  3 , Juan Carlos Carrasco  4   5 , Prosanta Chakrabarty  6 , Wilfredo A Matamoros  7   8
Affiliations

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

Caleb D McMahan et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of Neotropical cichlid (Cichlidae: Cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the Caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. Empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Map showing localities for Chortiheros wesseli samples and relevant river drainages in Honduras (generated in ArcMap 10.7). Black squares indicate absence, yellow circles indicate ‘less abundant’, and red stars indicate ‘abundant’ sample sizes of C. wesseli. Insert is a live individual of C. wesseli (LSUMZ 14519, 70.68 mm SL); photo courtesy of D. Smith.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Triplot showing results of the redundancy analysis (RDA). Symbols are the same as those used in Fig. 1.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Maps showing suitable habitat for Chortiheros wesseli, under Bioclim layers (upper) and EarthEnv layers (lower). Maps generated in ArcMap 10.7.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Response curves of three influential environmental predictors used for species distribution models for Chortiheros wesseli. Abbreviations defined in Supplementary Table S2.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Maps showing suitable habitat for Chortiheros wesseli under future scenarios of climate change. Projections of suitable environment for 2050 (top) and 2070 (bottom), for both RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right). Maps generated in ArcMap 10.7.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Comparison of total covered area of suitable habitats predicted by SDMs under RCP2.6 (red line) and RCP8.5 (blue line) scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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