Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Oct 13;222(10):1601-1606.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions

Mark N Lurie  1 , Joe Silva  1 , Rachel R Yorlets  1 , Jun Tao  2 , Philip A Chan  2
Affiliations

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions

Mark N Lurie et al. J Infect Dis. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.

Methods: We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state, and in association with stay-at-home orders.

Results: The epidemic doubling time in the United States was 2.68 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30-3.24 days) before widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 460% to 15 days (12.89-17.94 days) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, the median increase in doubling time was 60% (95% CI, 9.2-223.3), compared with 269% (95% CI, 277.0-394.0) for states with stay-at-home orders.

Conclusions: Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; epidemic doubling time.

PubMed Disclaimer

MeSH terms