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Review
. 2020 Jul;19(7):661-686.
doi: 10.1080/14760584.2020.1791093. Epub 2020 Aug 1.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

Kimberly M Thompson  1 , Dominika A Kalkowska  1
Affiliations
Review

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

Kimberly M Thompson et al. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2020 Jul.

Abstract

Introduction: Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

Areas covered: This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

Expert opinion: Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

Keywords: Poliovirus; eradication; modeling.

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Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Literature search process.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Thompson KM. The role of risk analysis in polio eradication: modeling possibilities, probabilities and outcomes to inform choices. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2012;11(1):5–7. - PubMed
    1. Thompson KM. Modeling poliovirus risks and the legacy of polio eradication. Risk Anal. 2013;33(4):505–515. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, et al. Polio eradicators use integrated analytical models to make better decisions. Interfaces. 2015;45(1):5–25.

    2. •• Gives an introduction of the complexities of polio and an overview of the contributions of Kid Risk, Inc modeling to GPEI decisions through 2014.

    1. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine-preventable diseases. Syst Dyn Rev. 2018;34(1–2):78–120. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kid Risk, Inc. Kid Risk, Inc. publications - polio. 2020. [cited 2020 January10]; Available from: https://kidrisk.org/research/publications_Polio.html.

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