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. 2020 Jul 30;17(15):5509.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17155509.

Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Balvinder Singh Gill  1 , Vivek Jason Jayaraj  2   3 , Sarbhan Singh  1 , Sumarni Mohd Ghazali  1 , Yoon Ling Cheong  1 , Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus  1 , Bala Murali Sundram  1 , Tahir Bin Aris  1 , Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim  3 , Boon Hao Hong  4 , Jane Labadin  4
Affiliations

Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Balvinder Singh Gill et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Keywords: COVID-19; and recovered (SEIR); exposed; infectious; isolation; mathematical modeling; movement; susceptible.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The extended susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered model depicting the control measures taken in Malaysia. The additional compartments are the traced close-contact and a negative test result population (T), the traced exposed close-contact and positive test result population (Eq) undergoing quarantine, and the infected isolated (Iq).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Number of daily active cases and model fit by day, 27 February to 17 March 2020, Malaysia (the grey shades show 95% confidence interval of the fitting).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Number of daily active cases and model fit by day, 27 February to 30 March 2020, Malaysia (the grey shades show 95% confidence interval of the fitting).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Model simulation of number of COVID-19 active cases by day, with only tracing, isolation, and quarantine measures, but without the MCO, February to September 2020, Malaysia (ζ = 25).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Observed number of COVID-19 active cases and models fit by day at different MCO phases, February to April 2020, Malaysia.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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