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. 2020 Aug 29;396(10251):587-590.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31689-5. Epub 2020 Aug 3.

COVID-19 spread in the UK: the end of the beginning?

Roy M Anderson  1 , T Déirdre Hollingsworth  2 , Rebecca F Baggaley  3 , Rosie Maddren  4 , Carolin Vegvari  4
Affiliations

COVID-19 spread in the UK: the end of the beginning?

Roy M Anderson et al. Lancet. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure
Figure
Simulations of the possible patterns of COVID-19 spread in the UK in 2020, taking account of parameter uncertainty The simulations of COVID-19 spread in the UK shown in this figure are illustrative, not predictive. One way of examining epidemiological uncertainty is to simulate the epidemic by sampling from the full range of parameter estimates in the current literature. As an illustration, we assume that all values of the parameters are equally likely and use Latin Hypercube methods to sample the parameter space. The graph shows a deterministic simulation of the epidemic in the UK, recording the incidence of infection over time in a population of 60 million people, based on the model described in the appendix. The solid line is the average prediction and the shaded area covers the 95% credible interval of the 100 showing (inset Rt and rt in the week before lockdown). Uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters therefore generates much variability in estimates of Rt and to a lesser extent rt. If we fix the parameter uncertainty, but instead take into account the negative binomial distribution of Rt, much variability in Rt and rt is again generated across a series of model runs. The message from both these examples suggests that the credible intervals around both parameters, Rt and rt, are much wider than those reported at present. These sources of variation must be combined with others that are also of great importance, such as spatial location and social factors.
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