Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Jul 9:5:495-501.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.007. eCollection 2020.

An evaluation of COVID-19 in Italy: A data-driven modeling analysis

Yongmei Ding  1 , Liyuan Gao  1
Affiliations

An evaluation of COVID-19 in Italy: A data-driven modeling analysis

Yongmei Ding et al. Infect Dis Model. .

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that has been spreading worldwide since December 2019 has sickened millions of people, lock down major cities and some countries, prompted unprecedented global travel restrictions. Real data-driven modeling is an effort to help evaluate and curb the spread of the novel virus. Lockdowns and the effectiveness of reduction in the contacts in Italy has been measured via our modified model, with the addition of auxiliary and state variables that represent, contacts with infected, conversion rate and latent propagation. Results show the decrease in infected people due to stay-at-home orders and tracing quarantine intervention. The effect of quarantine and centralized medical treatment was also measured through numerical modeling analysis.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; Modified SEIR.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing or conflicting financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The SIER flow diagram. Flows represent per capital flows from the donor compartments.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Epidemic curves for Italy, with infectious situation from February 24 to June 18, 2020.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Theoretical estimation of the modified SEIR dynamics model with and without the infection of incubation period.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Influence of infectivity during latent period on theoretical estimation of modified SEIR kinetic model.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The impact of medical tracking measures on isolation and control.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The impact of centralized isolation and personal quarantine.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The impact of daily safety precautions on outbreak control.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Cai J., JHY, WK Forecasting the development trend of new coronavirus pneumonia in wuhan based on seir model. Shandong Medicine. 2020;60:1–4.
    1. Cao S.L., Feng P.H., Shi P.P. The modified seir infectious disease dynamic model is applied to the prediction and evaluation of the 2019 coronavirus disease (covid-19) epidemic situation in hubei province. Journal of Zhejiang University. 2020:1–13. - PubMed
    1. Eikenberry S.E., Mancuso M., Iboi E., Phan T., Eikenberry K., Kuang Y., Kostelich E., Gumel A.B. To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the covid-19 pandemic. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2020;5:293–308. - PMC - PubMed
    1. L. Li, Z. Yang, Propagation analysis and prediction of the covid-19, Infectious Disease Modelling 5. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Giordano G., Blanchini F., Bruno R. Modelling the covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy. Nature Medicined. 2020;26:855–860. - PMC - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources