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. 2020 Jul 29;86(1):88.
doi: 10.5334/aogh.2969.

Containing COVID-19: Implementation of Early and Moderately Stringent Social Distancing Measures Can Prevent The Need for Large-Scale Lockdowns

Wee Chian Koh  1 , Mohammad Fathi Alikhan  2 , David Koh  3   4 , Justin Wong  2
Affiliations

Containing COVID-19: Implementation of Early and Moderately Stringent Social Distancing Measures Can Prevent The Need for Large-Scale Lockdowns

Wee Chian Koh et al. Ann Glob Health. .

Abstract

Guidance from many health authorities recommend that social distancing measures should be implemented in an epidemic when community transmission has already occurred. The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 suggest this is too late. Based on international comparisons of the timing and scale of the implementation of social distancing measures, we find that countries that imposed early stringent measures recorded far fewer cases than those that did not. Yet, such measures need not be extreme. We highlight the examples of Hong Kong and Brunei to demonstrate the early use of moderate social distancing measures as a practical containment strategy. We propose that such measures be a key part of responding to potential future waves of the epidemic.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no competing interests to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Total COVID-19 cases and government responses. Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Worldometer COVID-19 Tracker, Our World in Data, official government sources. Note: The stringency level is a composite index of nine policy measures: school closing; workplace closing; cancel public events; restrictions on gatherings; close public transport; stay-at-home requirements; restrictions on internal movement; international travel restrictions; and public info campaigns. The index ranges from 0 to 100. A higher index indicates a higher stringency. The size of a bubble is proportional to a country’s total number of cases. Countries below a tests-per-million threshold of 20,000 are excluded to reduce under-detection bias, with the exception of China. A similar picture is observed with the total number of deaths. Data as of May 20, 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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