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. 2020 Jun 11;9(3):102-107.
doi: 10.1097/XCE.0000000000000218. eCollection 2020 Sep.

Obese communities among the best predictors of COVID-19-related deaths

Antoine Fakhry AbdelMassih  1   2 , Ramy Ghaly  3 , Abeer Amin  3 , Amr Gaballah  3 , Aya Kamel  3 , Bassant Heikal  3 , Esraa Menshawey  3 , Habiba-Allah Ismail  3 , Hend Hesham  3 , Josephine Attallah  3 , Kirollos Eshak  3 , Mai Moursi  3 , Mariam Khaled-Ibn-ElWalid  3 , Marwa Tawfik  3 , Mario Tarek  3 , Mayan Mohy-El-Din  3 , Menna Habib  3 , Nada Hafez  3 , Odette Bahnan  3 , Passant Ismail  3 , Sara Senoussy  3 , Sherry Ghaly  3 , Sousanna Farah  3 , Rafeef Hozaien  3 , Veronia Adel  3 , Mariam Khaled  4
Affiliations

Obese communities among the best predictors of COVID-19-related deaths

Antoine Fakhry AbdelMassih et al. Cardiovasc Endocrinol Metab. .

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the largest outbreak to strike the world since the Spanish flu in 1918. Visual examination of the world map shows a wide variation of death tolls between countries. The main goal of our series is to determine the best predictors of such discrepancy.

Methods: This is a retrospective study in which the rate of COVID-19 deaths was correlated with each of the following independent variables: total tests per 1 million population, gross domestic product (GDP), average temperatures per country, ultraviolet index, median age, average BMI per country, food supply, Bacille Calmette-Guerin compulsory status, and passenger traffic.

Results: BMI per country proved to be the second best predictor of death rate with an R value of 0.43, and GDP being the best predictor with R = 0.65.

Conclusion: This article shows a tight correlation between average BMI, food supply per country, and COVID-19-related deaths. Such predisposing factors might operate by upregulating the inflammation pathway in heavily struck countries, leading to easier triggering of the infamous cytokine storm syndrome. Obesity also increases cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities, which are coupled to increased ICU demand and deaths among infected cases.Video abstract: http://links.lww.com/CAEN/A25.

Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019 deaths; obesity; upregulated inflammation.

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Conflict of interest statement

There are no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Scatter plot showing the relationship between GDP and COVID-19 deaths indexed to 1 million population per country. COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; GDP, gross domestic product; n, number of countries included in the study; P, Pearson coefficient for statistical significance; r, correlation coefficient.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Scatter plot showing the relationship between BMI per country and COVID-19 deaths indexed to 1 million population per country. COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; n, number of countries included in the study; P, Pearson coefficient for statistical significance; r, correlation coefficient.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Interactive dot diagram showing the cutoff temperature predicting positive outcome of mortality (1) as defined by mortality <1 per 1 million population of the affected country.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Summary of epidemiologic predictors of COVID-19-related deaths. BCG, Bacille Calmette-Guerin; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; GDP, gross domestic product.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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