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. 2020 Aug 19;14(8):e0008535.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008535. eCollection 2020 Aug.

Epidemiology of dengue fever in Guatemala

Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor  1 , Thomas Edwards  2 , Luis E Escobar  3 , Yolanda Mencos  1 , Agnes Matope  4 , Mariana Castaneda-Guzman  3 , Emily R Adams  2 , Luis E Cuevas  2   4
Affiliations

Epidemiology of dengue fever in Guatemala

Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Dengue fever occurs worldwide and about 1% of cases progress to severe haemorrhage and shock. Dengue is endemic in Guatemala and its surveillance system could document long term trends. We analysed 17 years of country-wide dengue surveillance data in Guatemala to describe epidemiological trends from 2000 to 2016.Data from the national dengue surveillance database were analysed to describe dengue serotype frequency, seasonality, and outbreaks. We used Poisson regression models to compare the number of cases each year with subsequent years and to estimate incidence ratios within serotype adjusted by age and gender. 91,554 samples were tested. Dengue was confirmed by RT-qPCR, culture or NS1-ELISA in 7097 (7.8%) cases and was IgM ELISA-positive in 19,290 (21.1%) cases. DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, and DENV4 were detected in 2218 (39.5%), 2580 (45.9%), 591 (10.5%), and 230 (4.1%) cases. DENV1 and DENV2 were the predominant serotypes, but all serotypes caused epidemics. The largest outbreak occurred in 2010 with 1080 DENV2 cases reported. The incidence was higher among adults during epidemic years, with significant increases in 2005, 2007, and 2013 DENV1 outbreaks, the 2010 DENV2 and 2003 DENV3 outbreaks. Adults had a lower incidence immediately after epidemics, which is likely linked to increased immunity.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Temporal distribution of dengue in Guatemala.
A. Annual number of samples received for dengue screening. The dashed line indicates the mean number of samples submitted across the study period (~5,300). B. Cumulative number of monthly cases of dengue serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Monthly distribution of dengue cases in Guatemala (2000–2016).
The mean annual number of cases is shown by a black line and the shaded areas describe the 95% confidence interval.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Annual percentage of confirmed dengue cases by serotype.
Cases detected by NS1 ELISA but not serotyped are designated DENV unknown.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Median age of dengue cases per year.
Error bars indicate interquartile range.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Geographic distribution of dengue in Guatemala (2000–2016).
A. Number of dengue cases by Department (incidence per × 10,000 inhabitants). B. Proportion of samples tested that are positive for dengue. Darker colours denote higher values. (Population data from Wikipedia: Departments of Guatemala, 2011 population estimate).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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