Association of early-onset diabetes, prediabetes and early glycaemic recovery with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis: The increasing incidence of diabetes among young adults is a disease burden; however, the effects of early-onset diabetes, prediabetes and glycaemic recovery on CVD or mortality remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the association of these factors with 10 year all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and CVD incidence in Korean young adults.

Methods: This large and longitudinal cohort study included data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Information Database; 2,502,375 young adults aged 20-39 years without diabetes mellitus and CVD at baseline were included. Glycaemic status was measured twice, first in 2002-2003 and second in 2004-2005. Changes in fasting glucose levels were evaluated according to fasting glucose status: normal fasting glucose (NFG; <5.5 mmol/l), impaired fasting glucose (IFG; 5.5-6.9 mmol/l), and diabetic fasting glucose (DFG; ≥7.0 mmol/l). Primary outcomes were all-cause and CVD mortality risk. The secondary outcome was incidence of CVD, including acute myocardial infarction and stroke. All outcomes arose from the 10 year follow-up period 1 Jan 2006 to 31 December 2015.

Results: Individuals with NFG at baseline, who were subsequently newly diagnosed with diabetes and prediabetes (IFG), had increased all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI] 1.60 [1.44, 1.78] and 1.13 [1.09, 1.18], respectively) and CVD incidence (1.13 [1.05, 1.23] and 1.04 [1.01, 1.07], respectively). In those with DFG at baseline, early recovery to NFG and IFG was associated with decreased all-cause mortality (0.57 [0.46, 0.70] and 0.65 [0.53, 0.81], respectively) and CVD incidence (0.70 [0.60, 0.81] and 0.78 [0.66, 0.91], respectively). Among patients with IFG at baseline, early recovery to NFG was associated with decreased CVD mortality (0.74 [0.59, 0.93]).

Conclusions/interpretation: Early-onset diabetes or prediabetes increased CVD risks and all-cause mortality after the 10 year follow-up. Furthermore, recovery of hyperglycaemia could reduce the subsequent 10 year risk for CVD incidence and all-cause mortality. Graphical abstract.

Keywords: All-cause mortality; Cardiovascular disease; Diabetes; Glycaemic recovery; Prediabetes.