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. 2020 Sep:71:100898.
doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2020.100898. Epub 2020 Jun 10.

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

George Verikios  1   2
Affiliations

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

George Verikios. Socioecon Plann Sci. 2020 Sep.

Abstract

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.

Keywords: COVID-19; Computable general equilibrium; Human coronavirus; Infectious diseases; Pandemic influenza; Periodicity; Trade linkages.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Structure of industry production technology.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The SEIR model.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Pathogen characteristics of the modelled pandemic relative to historical pandemics. Notes: Virulence is measured in terms of the case-fatality rate or deaths per infected case. Infectiousness (or transmissibility) represents the speed at which a pandemic will spread within a population and the total number of people that will be infected. Infectiousness of influenza is measured by the basic reproductive rate (R0), or the mean number of secondary cases an infectious case will cause in a population without immunity and without intervention. R0 > 1 is necessary for an epidemic to occur.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
New infections per week in selected regional populations - pandemic influenza scenario.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
New infections per week by region - coronavirus.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Global effects (percentage change).
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Global GDP - individual shocks (percentage change).
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
GDP effects for selected regions (percentage change).
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Global GDP and expenditure components (percentage change).
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Global GDP income components (percentage change).
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Global industry output (percentage change).
Fig. 12
Fig. 12
Regional GDP (percentage change).
Fig. 13
Fig. 13
Global GDP - individual shocks(percentage change).
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