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. 2020 Nov:140:110154.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110154. Epub 2020 Jul 29.

Estimating the parameters of susceptible-infected-recovered model of COVID-19 cases in India during lockdown periods

Dilip Kumar Bagal  1 , Arati Rath  2 , Abhishek Barua  3 , Dulu Patnaik  4
Affiliations

Estimating the parameters of susceptible-infected-recovered model of COVID-19 cases in India during lockdown periods

Dilip Kumar Bagal et al. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

Owing to the pandemic scenario of COVID-19 disease cases all over the world, the outbreak prediction has become extremely complex for the emerging scientific research. Several epidemiological mathematical models of spread are increasing daily to forecast the predictions appropriately. In this study, the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) modeling approach was employed to study the different parameters of this model for India. This approach was analyzed by considering different governmental lockdown measures in India. Some assumptions were considered to fit the model in the Python simulation for each lockdown scenario. The predicted parameters of the SIR model exhibited some improvement in each case of lockdown in India. In addition, the outcome results indicated that extreme interventions should be performed to tackle this type of pandemic situation in the near future.

Keywords: COVID-19; India; Lockdown; Python; SIR Model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Image, graphical abstract
Graphical abstract
Fig 1
Fig. 1
Scenario of the world until May 31, 2020.
Fig 2
Fig. 2
Scenario of India until May 31, 2020.
Fig 3
Fig. 3
Division of population based on the SIR model.
Fig 4
Fig. 4
Basic structure of the SIR model.
Fig 5
Fig. 5
Time span of lockdown in India.
Fig 6
Fig. 6
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown 0.
Fig 7
Fig. 7
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown 1.
Fig 8
Fig. 8
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown 2.
Fig 9
Fig. 9
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown 3.
Fig 10
Fig. 10
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown 4.
Fig 11
Fig. 11
Output parameters of SIR model for lockdown periods 0–4.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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