Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

Abstract

A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the daily growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the daily growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. The daily growth rate of new infections can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness.

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecast; Modelling; Pandemic; Quarantine effectiveness; SARS-COV-2.

Fig. 1

The averaged infectious rate 〈β〉 versus time for 46 countries. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine.

Fig. 2

Idealized scenario of the growth rate of new cases α dynamics with quarantine effectiveness e_q: a) ${\mathit{e}}_{\mathit{q}}=1$, b) e_q < 1.

Fig. 3

Realistic scenario of the growth rate of new cases α dynamics.

Fig. 4

The averaged daily growth rate of new infection cases 〈α〉 versus time for 46 countries. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine.

Fig. 5

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Australia. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 23. Data collected from .

Fig. 6

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Switzerland. Vertical black line points the day of first quarantine action on 2020 March 13. Data collected from .

Fig. 7

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for New Zealand. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 21. Data collected from .

Fig. 8

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Iceland. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 16. Data collected from .

Fig. 9

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Austria. Vertical black line points the day of first quarantine action on 2020 March 16. Data collected from .

Fig. 10

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Poland. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 12. Data collected from .

Fig. 11

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Italy. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 09. Data collected from .

Fig. 12

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Germany. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 23. Data collected from .

Fig. 13

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for the United Kingdom. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 24. Data collected from .

Fig. 14

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Denmark. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 11. Data collected from .

Fig. 15

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Russia. Vertical black line points the day of imposed quarantine on 2020 March 30. Data collected from .

Fig. 16

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for USA. Vertical black line points the day of supposed average quarantine date 2020 March 20. Data collected from .

Fig. 17

Dynamics of the daily new cases n_Id (a) and the daily growth rate of new cases α (b) for Sweden. Vertical black line points the day of imposed initial quarantine actions on 2020 March 10. Data collected from .