Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Oct;76(4):377-386.
doi: 10.1016/j.mjafi.2020.06.001. Epub 2020 Jun 17.

Predictive models of COVID-19 in India: A rapid review

Atul Kotwal  1 , Arun Kumar Yadav  2 , Jyoti Yadav  3 , Jyoti Kotwal  4 , Sudhir Khune  5
Affiliations

Predictive models of COVID-19 in India: A rapid review

Atul Kotwal et al. Med J Armed Forces India. 2020 Oct.

Abstract

Background: The mathematical modelling of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has been attempted by a wide range of researchers from the very beginning of cases in India. Initial analysis of available models revealed large variations in scope, assumptions, predictions, course, effect of interventions, effect on health-care services, and so on. Thus, a rapid review was conducted for narrative synthesis and to assess correlation between predicted and actual values of cases in India.

Methods: A comprehensive, two-step search strategy was adopted, wherein the databases such as Medline, google scholar, MedRxiv, and BioRxiv were searched. Later, hand searching for the articles and contacting known modelers for unpublished models was resorted. The data from the included studies were extracted by the two investigators independently and checked by third researcher.

Results: Based on the literature search, 30 articles were included in this review. As narrative synthesis, data from the studies were summarized in terms of assumptions, model used, predictions, main recommendations, and findings. The Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) between predicted and actual values (n = 20) was 0.7 (p = 0.002) with R2 = 0.49. For Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) and its variant models (n = 16) 'r' was 0.65 (p = 0.02). The correlation for long-term predictions could not be assessed due to paucity of information.

Conclusion: Review has shown the importance of assumptions and strong correlation between short-term projections but uncertainties for long-term predictions. Thus, short-term predictions may be revised as more and more data become available. The assumptions too need to expand and firm up as the pandemic evolves.

Keywords: COVID-19; India; Mathematical modeling; Systematic review.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have none to declare.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
PRISMA chart.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Type of mathematical modeling used for modeling COVID-19, ∗SIR, susceptible, infectious, recovered; SEIR, susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Predicted and actual value of number of total cases for COVID cases in India. #The number in box is reference number of studies.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Trevisanato S.I. The biblical plague of the Philistines now has a name, tularemia. Med Hypotheses. 2007;69:1144–1146. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2007.02.036. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Acuna-Soto R., Stahle D.W., Therrell M.D., Gomez Chavez S., Cleaveland M.K. Drought, epidemic disease, and the fall of classic period cultures in Mesoamerica (AD 750–950). Hemorrhagic fevers as a cause of massive population loss. Med Hypotheses. 2005;65:405–409. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2005.02.025. - DOI - PubMed
    1. WHO | Disease outbreaks by year. WHO. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/en/[accessed April 23, 2020].
    1. Bernoulli D., Blower S. An attempt at a new analysis of the mortality caused by smallpox and of the advantages of inoculation to prevent it. Rev Med Virol. 2004;14:275–288. doi: 10.1002/rmv.443. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Kermack W.O., McKendrick A.G., Walker G.T. vol. 115. 1927. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics; pp. 700–721. (Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character). - DOI