Can pandemics affect educational attainment? Evidence from the polio epidemic of 1916

Abstract

We leverage the largest polio outbreak in US history, the 1916 polio epidemic, to study how epidemic-related school interruptions affect educational attainment. Using polio morbidity as a proxy for epidemic exposure, we find that children aged 10 and under, and school-aged children of legal working age with greater exposure to the epidemic experienced reduced educational attainment compared to their slightly older peers. These reductions in observed educational attainment persist even after accounting for the influenza epidemic of 1918.

Keywords: Educational attainment; Epidemics; Polio; Schooling disruption.

Fig. 1

Frequency of newspapers in Chronicling America mentioning “school postponement” and polio on the same page, entire U.S.A.

Fig. 2

Weekly city-level polio morbidity in 1916 by school start dates from Chronicling America. Subset of cities reporting polio cases to Public Health Service disease surveillance system in 1916

Fig. 3

Subset of weekly city-level polio morbidity in 1916 by school start dates from Chronicling America, observations with less that 100 reported cases. Subset of cities reporting polio cases to Public Health Service disease surveillance system in 1916

Fig. 4

Average daily attendance, NYC schools 1911 to 1917. Source: Annual report of the superintendent of Schools Board of Education, the City of New York

Fig. 5

Mean share of the population observed residing in states other than birth state in 1920

Fig. 6

County polio notifications per 1000 in 1916 for select counties, nine quantile bins. Collected from Lavinder et al. (1918)