Analysis of mobility trends during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic: Exploring the impacts on global aviation and travel in selected cities

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the transportation sector and subsequent implications on the sectoral energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions in some selected cities worldwide. A model for smart transportation is proposed by considering four indicators, including transport efficiency, technology integration, traffic congestion rate, and accessibility ratio. While prior health crises, such as SARS, impacted the transportation sector, the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented, resulting in exceptional impacts on this sector. Canadian Civil Aviation activities dropped by 71%, compared to business as usual, whereas military aviation activities declined by 27%. As of the end of June 2020, cities with higher than 50% mobility index include Brussels, Singapore, Stockholm, Lyon, Paris, Moscow, and Hong Kong with the highest mobility index of 76%. American cities have the lowest mobility indexes as of the end of June with mobility indexes lower than 20%. It is expected and reasonable to assume that the public's response to COVID-19 will exceed that of SARS. While Britons and Canadians are the biggest supporters of keeping the economy and businesses shut until COVID-19 is fully contained, the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and Italians find it vital to restart the economy regardless. Results show that the majority of the world is in a state of mental distress and will face nervousness and anxiety issues post-COVID-19. This sentiment is strongest in India, Japan, China, the U.K., Brazil and Canada, ranging between 68% and 78%. The trucking industry is the main contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Canadian transportation sector, accounting for more than 62% of the total emissions in 2019. Given the impact of COVID-19, forecasted GHG emissions of the Canadian transportation sector for 2020is evaluated to be 93 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Energy research; Energy sustainability; Environment; Social behavior; Transportation.

Fig. 1

Overview of the COVID-19 impacts on the transportation sector.

Fig. 2

Overview of the smart transportation assessment methodology.

Fig. 3

Proposed model for asssessing the transprotation sectort.

Fig. 4

Global mobility trends in response to COVID-19 pandemic (Data from:[10]).

Fig. 5

Mobility changes in Canadian cities in response to COVID-19 (Data from: [10]).

Fig. 6

Mobility changes in American cities in response to COVID-19 (Data from: [10]).

Fig. 7

Mobility changes in English cities in response to COVID-19 (Data from: [10]).

Fig. 8

Reduction in the transportation sector by road and air across the world due to COVID-19 (Adopted from: [1]).

Fig. 9

Reduction in transportation activity worldwide due to various health crises (Adopted from: [12]).

Fig. 10

Survey results about restarting the economy despite of COVID-19 containment (Adopted from: [13]).

Fig. 11

Survey results per country about nervousness of leaving homes after COVID-19 (Adopted from: [13]).

Fig. 12

Historical GHG emissions of the Canadian transportation sector based on various modes (Data from: [5]).

Fig. 13

Forecasted GHG emissions of the Canadian transportation sector post-COVID-19 (Data from: [5]).