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. 2021 Jan-Mar:9:147-149.
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.08.005. Epub 2020 Aug 20.

The basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus pandemic with mortality for India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, Yemen, China, France, Nigeria and Russia with different rate of cases

Marwan Al-Raeei  1
Affiliations

The basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus pandemic with mortality for India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, Yemen, China, France, Nigeria and Russia with different rate of cases

Marwan Al-Raeei. Clin Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Jan-Mar.

Abstract

Background: The basic reproduction number values give an initial prediction of the disease because the values predict of end of the disease if the values are less than one or the disease converts to epidemic if the values are more than one. We apply the SIRD epidemiology model for estimating the basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus disease for multiple different countries.

Methods: For estimating of the basic reproduction number values, we fit the SIRD model using the Runge-Kutta simulation method in addition to the analytical solution of parts of the model. We use the collected data of the new coronavirus pandemic reported up to date July 30, 2020 in India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, France, Nigeria, Yemen, China and Russia.

Results: We find that the basic reproduction numbers of the new coronavirus disease are located in the range [1.0011-2.7936] for the different location countries and the values of the ratio between the rate of recovery and the rate of mortality are between 1.5905 for Yemen and 44.0805 for Russia. Also, we find the dates of the actual decreasing of Covid-19 cases in five countries.

Conclusions: We find that the basic reproductive number is between 1.0011 for the smallest value and 2.7936 for the greatest value. The most important thing is that the values of the basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus disease in all considered countries are more than one which means that the new coronavirus disease is epidemic in all of considered countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; New coronavirus disease; Runge-Kutta method; SIRD Epidemiology model; The basic reproduction number.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author have no conflict of interests.

References

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