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. 2020 Aug;18(4):1886-1927.
doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvz051. Epub 2019 Oct 3.

As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality

Michael L Anderson  1
Affiliations

As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality

Michael L Anderson. J Eur Econ Assoc. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

There is strong evidence that short-run fluctuations in air pollution negatively impact infant health and contemporaneous adult health, but there is less evidence on the causal link between long-term exposure to air pollution and increased adult mortality. This project estimates the impact of long-term exposure to air pollution on mortality by leveraging quasi-random variation in pollution levels generated by wind patterns near major highways. I combine geocoded data on the residence of every decedent in Los Angeles over three years, high-frequency wind data, and Census short form data. Using these data, I estimate the effect of downwind exposure to highway-generated pollutants on the age-specific mortality rate by using orientation to the nearest major highway as an instrument for pollution exposure. I find that doubling the percentage of time spent downwind of a highway increases mortality among individuals 75 or older by 3.8%-6.5%. These estimates are robust and imply significant loss of life years.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Stylized wind direction scenarios. Panels depict a segment of Interstate 110, which runs north–south in the sample area. Wind direction varies by panel. Map tiles from OpenStreetMap, www.openstreetmap.org/copyright.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Analytic sample census blocks.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Stylized example of highway segment fixed effects.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Relationship between downwind frequency and mortality. This figure plots a bin scatterplot of the three-year mortality rate for 75+ year olds against downwind frequency. Variables are residualized with respect to 800-m highway segment fixed effects. Each bin contains approximately 500 observations.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Relationship between downwind frequency, mortality, and orientation to highway. This figure plots local polynomial regressions of downwind frequency or the three-year mortality rate for 75+ year olds on orientation to highway in degrees (bandwidths of 15 and 30 degrees, respectively, Epanechnikov kernel). Variables are residualized with respect to 800-m highway segment fixed effects. On the x-axis each tick mark is separated by 45 degrees, and parentheses contain orientation in degrees.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Mortality effects by month of year. This figure plots regression coefficients or means estimated by month of year. The solid line plots coefficients from a regression of monthly mortality rates on overall downwind frequency, controlling for distance to highway, weather station fixed effects, highway segment fixed effects, share African-American, and share over ages 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, and 75. The dashed line plots the sample-weighted share of month during which wind blows at under 1 mph.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Relationship between downwind frequency and NO2 levels. This figure plots average NO2 concentration against average downwind frequency for air pollution monitors located near highways in the Los Angeles Basin. The 0.11 bin contains two monitors, and other bins contain one monitor each.
Figure 8.
Figure 8.
Hourly variation in NO2 differences and downwind differences. This figure plots regression coefficients from regressions of hourly downwind frequency on average downwind frequency (solid line) or regressions of NO2 concentrations on average downwind frequency (dashed line). Each regression is limited to a single hour of day, and in all regressions the unit of observation is a single pollution reading at one monitor.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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