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. 2020 Aug 27;17(17):6238.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17176238.

Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling

Makoto Niwa  1   2 , Yasushi Hara  3 , Shintaro Sengoku  4 , Kota Kodama  1   5
Affiliations

Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling

Makoto Niwa et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

In Japan's response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed.

Keywords: COVID-19; new infectious disease; system dynamics.

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Conflict of interest statement

M.N. is an employee of Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., a pharmaceutical company. The authors declare no other conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Stock-flow model for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Causal loop diagram of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Simulation of the COVID-19 outbreak without intervention (Tokyo case).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Simulation without intervention and actual patient numbers in 3 regions.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Actual and simulated confirmed positives in 3 regions (upper) and estimated transmission efficiencies (expressed as relative to efficiency derived from natural reproduction rate, lower) are shown. The periods with maximum transmission efficiency in each region were considered as the baseline of outbreak.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Causal loop diagram for societal factors related to new infectious diseases.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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