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Observational Study
. 2020 Dec;107(13):1838-1845.
doi: 10.1002/bjs.11836. Epub 2020 Sep 2.

Conditional risk of diverticulitis after non-operative management

R Garfinkle  1 , T Almalki  1 , V Pelsser  2 , P Bonaffini  3 , C Reinhold  3 , N Morin  1 , C-A Vasilevsky  1 , A S Liberman  4 , M Boutros  1
Affiliations
Observational Study

Conditional risk of diverticulitis after non-operative management

R Garfinkle et al. Br J Surg. 2020 Dec.

Abstract
in English, Spanish

Background: The objective of this study was to describe conditional recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients after an index episode of diverticulitis managed without surgery, and to estimate the difference in conditional RFS for diverticulitis according to specific risk factors.

Methods: This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study including all patients managed without surgery for acute sigmoid diverticulitis at two university-affiliated hospitals in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Conditional RFS for diverticulitis was estimated over 10 years of follow-up. A Cox proportional hazards model was performed at the index episode and again 2 years later.

Results: In total, 991 patients were included for analysis. The 1, 2- and 3-year actuarial diverticulitis RFS rates were 81·1, 71·5 and 67·5 per cent respectively. Compared with the 1-year actuarial RFS rate of 81·1 per cent, the 1-year conditional RFS increased with each additional year survived recurrence-free, reaching 96·0 per cent after surviving the first 4 years recurrence-free. A similar phenomenon was observed for 2-year diverticulitis conditional RFS. Lower age (hazard ratio (HR) 0·98, 95 per cent c.i. 0·98 to 0·99), Charlson Co-morbidity Index score of 2 or above (HR 1·78, 1·32 to 2·39) and immunosuppression (HR 1·85, 1·38 to 2·48) were independently associated with recurrence of diverticulitis from the index episode. At 2 years from the index episode, immunosuppression was no longer associated with diverticulitis recurrence (HR 1·02, 0·50 to 2·09).

Conclusion: The conditional RFS of patients with diverticulitis improved with each year that was survived recurrence-free. Although several factors at index presentation may be associated with early recurrence, the conditional probability of recurrence according to many of these risk factors converged with time.

Antecedentes: El objetivo de este estudio fue describir la supervivencia condicional libre de recidiva de diverticulitis (diverticulitis recurrence-free survival, Div-RFS) en pacientes tras un episodio de diverticulitis tratado de forma conservadora, y calcular la diferencia en la Div-RFS condicional de acuerdo con factores de riesgo específicos. MÉTODOS: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo multicéntrico que incluyó a todos los pacientes tratados de forma no quirúrgica por diverticulitis sigmoidea aguda en dos hospitales afiliados a la universidad en Montreal, Quebec, Canadá. La supervivencia condicional libre de recidiva de la diverticulitis se calculó durante 10 años de seguimiento. Se realizó un análisis mediante un modelo de riesgos proporcionales de Cox en el episodio índice y nuevamente 2 años después.

Resultados: En total, se incluyeron 991 pacientes en el análisis. La Div-RFS actuarial a 1, 2 y 3 años fue del 81,1%, 71,5% y 67,5%, respectivamente. En comparación con la Div-RFS actuarial a 1 año del 81,1%, la Div-RFS condicional a 1 año aumentó con cada año adicional sobrevivido sin recidiva, alcanzando el 96,0% después de sobrevivir los primeros 4 años sin recidiva. Se observó un fenómeno similar para Div-RFS condicional a los 2 años. Una menor edad (cociente de riesgos instantáneos, hazard ratio, HR: 0,98; i.c. del 95%: 0,98 a 0,99), la puntuación de comorbilidad de Charlson ≥ 2 (HR: 1,78; i.c. del 95%: 1,32 a 2,39) y la inmunosupresión (HR: 1,85; i.c. del 95%: 1,38 a 2,48) se asociaron de forma independiente con la recidiva de la diverticulitis desde el episodio índice. En la regresión de Cox a los 2 años del episodio índice, la inmunosupresión ya no se asoció con recidiva de diverticulitis (HR: 1,02; i.c. del 95% 0,50-2,09). CONCLUSIÓN: La Div-RFS condicional mejoró con cada año de supervivencia sin recidiva. Si bien varios factores en la presentación del episodio índice pueden estar asociados con una recidiva precoz, la probabilidad condicional de recidiva en relación con muchos de estos factores de riesgo coincidió con el tiempo.

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