The Likelihood of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Genetic Disease (Transgenerational Effects) from Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from the 1945 Trinity Atomic Bomb Test

Abstract

The potential health consequences of the Trinity nuclear weapon test of 16 July 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico, are challenging to assess. Population data are available for mortality but not for cancer incidence for New Mexico residents for the first 25 y after the test, and the estimates of radiation dose to the nearby population are lower than the cumulative dose received from ubiquitous natural background radiation. Despite the estimates of low population exposures, it is believed by some that cancer rates in counties near the Trinity test site (located in Socorro County) are elevated compared with other locations across the state. Further, there is a concern about adverse pregnancy outcomes and genetic diseases (transgenerational or heritable effects) related to population exposure to fallout radiation. The possibility of an intergenerational effect has long been a concern of exposed populations, e.g., Japanese atomic bomb survivors, survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer, radiation workers, and environmentally exposed groups. In this paper, the likelihood of discernible transgenerational effects is discounted because (1) in all large-scale comprehensive studies of exposed populations, no heritable genetic effects have been demonstrated in children of exposed parents; (2) the distribution of estimated doses from Trinity is much lower than in other studied populations where no transgenerational effects have been observed; and (3) there is no evidence of increased cancer rates among the scientific, military, and professional participants at the Trinity test and at other nuclear weapons tests who received much higher doses than New Mexico residents living downwind of the Trinity site.

Fig. 1

Schematic of how the level of concern about transgenerational (heritable) risks has decreased from the 1950s to the present as more information from human studies has become available (Hall et al. 2009).