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Meta-Analysis
. 2020 Nov:100:302-308.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065. Epub 2020 Sep 1.

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

Ramy Abou Ghayda  1 , Keum Hwa Lee  2 , Young Joo Han  3 , Seohyun Ryu  4 , Sung Hwi Hong  5 , Sojung Yoon  4 , Gwang Hun Jeong  6 , Jinhee Lee  7 , Jun Young Lee  8 , Jae Won Yang  8 , Maria Effenberger  9 , Michael Eisenhut  10 , Andreas Kronbichler  11 , Marco Solmi  12 , Han Li  13 , Louis Jacob  14 , Ai Koyanagi  15 , Joaquim Radua  16 , Jae Il Shin  17 , Lee Smith  18
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

Ramy Abou Ghayda et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

Objective: Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.

Methods: A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on these results, we performed a meta-analysis for a global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed using two different calculations of CFR: according to the calendar date and according to the days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR, concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.

Results: For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses according to the calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, were different.

Conclusion: We propose that a CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.

Keywords: COVID-19; Calendar date; Case fatality rate; Days since the first confirmed case; Proportion meta-analysis.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Timeline of CFR worldwide among countries with COVID-19 reports until August 12, 2020: (A) According to date and (B) According to days since the first confirmed case. COVID-19: Coronavirus 2019, CFR: case fatality rate, Fixed: fixed-effect model, Random: random-effect model, Pooled: calculated CFR based on incidence and mortality data, N: number.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The trend of patients with COVID-19: (A) According to date and (B) According to days. COVID-19: Coronavirus 2019, CFR: case fatality rate, No.: number, Fixed: fixed-effect model, Pooled: calculated CFR based on incidence and mortality data.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Differences in weight between (A) Fixed and (B) Random meta-analyses,calculated to the number of patients at one point as an example 205 countries, April 24, 2020. Random weight: Weight in random meta-analyses, Fixed weight: Weight in fixed meta-analyses.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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