Understanding the ever-changing incidence of thyroid cancer

Abstract

This Comment article provides a behind-the-scenes perspective and update of our 2016 Review, which discussed possible factors contributing to thyroid cancer incidence trends worldwide. We also highlight promising research directions that are improving the understanding of thyroid cancer aetiology.

Fig. 1. Age-standardized incidence rates of papillary thyroid cancer (overall and large (>4 cm) among people aged ≥60 years in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results — 13 cancer registry program, 1995–2015).

The rates of papillary thyroid cancer are shown as overall rates and have been stratified as attributable to overweight or obesity or as being unrelated to overweight or obesity. Annual population attributable fractions are based on relative risk estimates from the NIH–AARP Diet and Health Study and prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity among US adults aged ≥50 years from the National Health Interview Survey (1985−2005). The arrows represent the hypothetical reduction in the incidence rates for papillary thyroid cancer in the absence of overweight and obesity in the 10 years before the date of diagnosis. Please note the 10-fold difference in scale of the y axes. Adapted with permission from ref., Oxford University Press.