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. 2022 Feb;16(1):40-50.
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.321. Epub 2020 Sep 9.

Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India

Parth Vipul Shah  1
Affiliations

Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India

Parth Vipul Shah. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2022 Feb.

Abstract

Objectives: We study the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India and model the epidemic to guide those involved in formulating policy and building health-care capacity.

Methods: This effect is studied using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. We estimate the infection rate using a least square method with Poisson noise and calculate the reproduction number.

Results: The infection rate is estimated to be 0.270 and the reproduction number to be 2.70. The approximate peak of the epidemic will be August 9, 2020. A 25% drop in infection rate will delay the peak by 11 d for a 1-mo intervention period. The total infected individuals in India will be 9% of the total population.

Conclusions: The predictions are sensitive to changes in the behavior of people and their practice of social distancing.

Keywords: COVID-19; India; SEIR compartmental model; infection rate; intervention; peak prediction.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Daily Increase in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in India. Note: Day 0 is January 25, 2020, and day 92 is April 26, 2020. Data are taken from Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).4
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Cumulative Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in India. Note: Day 0 is January 25, 2020, and day 92 is April 26, 2020. Data are taken from Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).4
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Comparison of Daily Confirmed Cases and Y in India From t = 0 to t = 92.
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Infected Individuals for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 for p = 0.1.
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Infected Individuals for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 for p = 0.01.
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Variation in Y (t) for Tme t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 With no Intervention, 1 mo of Intervention, and 6 mo of Intervention With Assumption of β j = 0.95 × β. (β = 0.270).
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 7
Variation in Y (t) for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 With no Intervention, 1 mo of Intervention, and 6 mo of Intervention With Assumption of β j = 0.75 × β. (β = 0.270).
FIGURE 8
FIGURE 8
Variation in Y (t) for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 With no Intervention, 1 mo of Intervention and 6 mo of Intervention With Assumption of β j = 0.50 × β. (β = 0.270).
FIGURE 9
FIGURE 9
Variation in Y (t) for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 With 1 mo of Intervention and With Assumption of β j = 0.50 × β, β j = 0.75 × β, β j = 0.95 × β. (β = 0.270).
FIGURE 10
FIGURE 10
Variation in Y (t) for Time t, 0 ≤ t ≤ 550 With 6 mo of Intervention and With Assumption of β j = 0.50 × β, β j = 0.75 × β, β j = 0.95 × β. (β = 0.270).
FIGURE 11
FIGURE 11
Infected Individuals Requiring Hospitalization or Intensive Care and Health-Care Capacities in India.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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