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. 2020 Nov;20(4):e2333.
doi: 10.1002/pa.2333. Epub 2020 Aug 27.

Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the COVID19 curve

Noman Arshed  1   2 , Muhammad Saeed Meo  3 , Fatima Farooq  4
Affiliations

Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the COVID19 curve

Noman Arshed et al. J Public Aff. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

The objective of the study is 2-fold. First, it estimates the 2019 new coronavirus disease (COVID19) flattening curve using Panel Random Coefficient Model. This allows each country to have its trajectory while allowing for random error effects to transfer across countries. Second, it calculates the expected number of days to reach the flattening point of COVID19 curve and estimate the empirical effectiveness of government policies around the world using Poisson regression. This study avails global COVID19 incidence data for 190 countries between January 22, 2020 and May 11, 2020. In the absence of a vaccine or of more appropriate treatment options, non-pharmaceutical approaches must be used to control the spread of the COVID19. This study proposed that the contact tracing, stay at home restrictions and international movement restrictions are most effective in controlling the spread and flattening the COIVD19 curve. At the same time, habits that hurt the immune system like smoking have a negative effect on the flattening of the curve. The government should integrate these policies in their lockdown plan to make it smart lockdown.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Average incidence of COVID19
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Flattening of COVID19—quadratic fit
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Flattening of COVID19 curve
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Histogram of days to flatten COVID19 curve
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Spatial incidence of days to flatten COVID19 curve
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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