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. 2020 Oct:139:110256.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110256. Epub 2020 Sep 2.

Fractional order mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission

Shabir Ahmad  1 , Aman Ullah  1 , Qasem M Al-Mdallal  2 , Hasib Khan  3 , Kamal Shah  1 , Aziz Khan  4
Affiliations

Fractional order mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission

Shabir Ahmad et al. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct.

Abstract

In this article, the mathematical model with different compartments for the transmission dynamics of coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is presented under the fractional-order derivative. Some results regarding the existence of at least one solution through fixed point results are derived. Then for the concerned approximate solution, the modified Euler method for fractional-order differential equations (FODEs) is utilized. Initially, we simulate the results by using some available data for different fractional-order to show the appropriateness of the proposed method. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.

Keywords: Approximate solutions; Caputo’s fractional derivative; Corona virus COVID-19; Fractional Euler’s method.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Dynamical behavior of susceptible class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Dynamical behavior of exposed class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Dynamical behavior of symptomatic and infectious class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Dynamical behavior of super-spreaders class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Dynamical behavior of infectious but asymptomatic class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Dynamical behavior of hospitalized class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Dynamical behavior of Recovered class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Dynamical behavior of fatality class at various fractional order of the considered model.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Comparison of simulated and real data at different fractional order for the confirmed reported cases per day of the proposed model.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Comparison of simulated and real data at different fractional order for the confirmed reported death per day of the proposed model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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