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. 2020 Sep 9;20(1):865.
doi: 10.1186/s12885-020-07328-9.

Nomogram for individually predicting overall survival in rectal neuroendocrine tumours

Xingyu Feng  1 , Gengzhou Wei  2 , Wei Wang  3 , Yu Zhang  4 , Yujie Zeng  5 , Minhu Chen  4 , Ye Chen  6 , Jie Chen  7 , Zhiwei Zhou  8 , Yong Li  9
Affiliations

Nomogram for individually predicting overall survival in rectal neuroendocrine tumours

Xingyu Feng et al. BMC Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts the overall survival (OS) of rectal neuroendocrine tumours (NETs).

Methods: We retrospectively analysed 310 patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours in 5 hospitals in southern China. All of the patients were assigned to the training set. A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set, and a nomogram was constructed. It was validated on a dataset obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database of America (n = 547).

Results: In the training set, the nomogram exhibited improved discrimination power compared with the WHO grade guidelines (Herrell's C-index, 0.872 vs 0.794; p < 0.001) and was also better than the seventh AJCC TNM classification (Herrell's C-index, 0.872 vs 0.817; p < 0.001). In the SEER validation dataset, the discrimination was also excellent (C-index, 0.648 vs 0.583, p < 0.001 and 0.648 vs 0.603, p = 0.016, respectively, compared with G grade and TNM classification). Calibration of the nomogram predicted individual survival corresponding closely with the actual survival.

Conclusions: We developed a nomogram predicting 1- and 3-year OS of patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility.

Keywords: Neuroendocrine tumours; Nomogram; Overall survival; Rectal neoplasms.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
nomogram predicting 1- and 3-year OS of patients with rectal NETS. The nomogram sums the points identified on the scale for each variable. The total points projected on the bottom scale indicate the probability for 1- and 3-year overall survival
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The calibration of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. The x-axis represents the survival rate predicted by the nomogram, whereas the y-axis presents the actual survival rate. The 95% CIs were measured via a Kaplan-Meier analysis. All predictions lie within a 10% margin of error. a 1-year OS in the training set. b 3-year OS in the training set. c 1-year OS in the validation set. d 3-year OS in the validation set
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