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. 2022 Feb;16(1):390-397.
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.332. Epub 2020 Sep 10.

COVID-19 Models for Hospital Surge Capacity Planning: A Systematic Review

Michael G Klein  1 , Carolynn J Cheng  1 , Evonne Lii  1 , Keying Mao  1 , Hamza Mesbahi  1 , Tianjie Zhu  1 , John A Muckstadt  2 , Nathaniel Hupert  3
Affiliations

COVID-19 Models for Hospital Surge Capacity Planning: A Systematic Review

Michael G Klein et al. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2022 Feb.

Abstract

Objective: Health system preparedness for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) includes projecting the number and timing of cases requiring various types of treatment. Several tools were developed to assist in this planning process. This review highlights models that project both caseload and hospital capacity requirements over time.

Methods: We systematically reviewed the medical and engineering literature according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We completed searches using PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, Google Scholar, and the Google search engine.

Results: The search strategy identified 690 articles. For a detailed review, we selected 6 models that met our predefined criteria. Half of the models did not include age-stratified parameters, and only 1 included the option to represent a second wave. Hospital patient flow was simplified in all models; however, some considered more complex patient pathways. One model included fatality ratios with length of stay (LOS) adjustments for survivors versus those who die, and accommodated different LOS for critical care patients with or without a ventilator.

Conclusion: The results of our study provide information to physicians, hospital administrators, emergency response personnel, and governmental agencies on available models for preparing scenario-based plans for responding to the COVID-19 or similar type of outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; hospital; pandemic; surge capacity.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
PRISMA Flow Diagram for the Systematic Review.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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