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. 2020 Jan-Jun:42:1039-1056.
doi: 10.4054/demres.2020.42.36. Epub 2020 Jun 9.

Greater mortality variability in the United States in comparison with peer countries

Richard G Rogers  1 , Robert A Hummer  2 , Justin M Vinneau  1 , Elizabeth M Lawrence  3
Affiliations

Greater mortality variability in the United States in comparison with peer countries

Richard G Rogers et al. Demogr Res. 2020 Jan-Jun.

Abstract

Background: Over the past several decades, US mortality declines have lagged behind other high-income countries. However, scant attention has been devoted to how US mortality variability compares with other countries.

Objective: We examine trends in mortality and mortality variability in the US and 16 peer countries from 1980 through 2016.

Methods: We employ the Human Mortality Database and demographic techniques - with a focus on patterns in the interquartile (IQR), interdecile (IDR), and intercentile (ICR) ranges of survivorship - to better understand US mortality and mortality variability trends in comparative perspective.

Results: Compared to other high-income countries, the US: (1) mortality ranking has slipped for nearly all age groups; (2) is losing its old age mortality advantage; (3) has seen growth in relative age-specific mortality gaps from infancy through midlife; and (4) exhibits greater concentrations of deaths from infancy through adulthood, resulting in much greater mortality variability.

Conclusions: We contribute to calls for renewed attention to the relatively low and lagging US life expectancy. The ICR draws particular attention to the comparatively high US early and midlife mortality.

Contribution: We find comparatively high variability in US mortality. Further reductions in early and midlife mortality could diminish variability, reduce years of potential life lost, and increase life expectancy. Consistent with previous research, we encourage policymakers to focus on reducing the unacceptably high early and midlife mortality in the US. And we urge researchers to more frequently monitor and track mortality variation in conjunction with mortality rates and life expectancy estimates.

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Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:. Age-specific percentage differences in mortality probabilities between the United States and the average of 16 peer countries, 1980–2016
Note: The average for peer countries excludes Germany in 1980, and excludes Italy and Portugal in 2016. Source: Derived from the Human Mortality Database (2020).
Figure 2:
Figure 2:. Distributions of deaths (ndx) by country, 2016
Source: Derived from the Human Mortality Database (2020).
Figure 3:
Figure 3:. High US interquartile, interdecile, and intercentile ranges of survivorship relative to peer countries, 1980–2018
Notes: Total of countries included in 1980 is 16, with Germany excluded. Total of countries included in 2016 is 15, with Italy and Portugal excluded. The figure includes trends through 2018 for countries with available data (Finland and Norway). Source: Derived from the Human Mortality Database (2020).
Figure 3:
Figure 3:. High US interquartile, interdecile, and intercentile ranges of survivorship relative to peer countries, 1980–2018
Notes: Total of countries included in 1980 is 16, with Germany excluded. Total of countries included in 2016 is 15, with Italy and Portugal excluded. The figure includes trends through 2018 for countries with available data (Finland and Norway). Source: Derived from the Human Mortality Database (2020).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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