Business Closures, Stay-at-Home Restrictions, and COVID-19 Testing Outcomes in New York City

Abstract

Introduction: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, New York City closed all nonessential businesses and restricted the out-of-home activities of residents as of March 22, 2020. This order affected different neighborhoods differently, as stores and workplaces are not randomly distributed across the city, and different populations may have responded differently to the out-of-home restrictions. This study examines how the business closures and activity restrictions affected COVID-19 testing results. An evaluation of whether such actions slowed the spread of the pandemic is a crucial step in designing effective public health policies.

Methods: Daily data on the fraction of COVID-19 tests yielding a positive result at the zip code level were analyzed in relation to the number of visits to local businesses (based on smartphone location) and the number of smartphones that stayed fixed at their home location. The regression model also included vectors of fixed effects for the day of the week, the calendar date, and the zip code of residence.

Results: A large number of visits to local businesses increased the positivity rate of COVID-19 tests, while a large number of smartphones that stayed at home decreased it. A doubling in the relative number of visits increases the positivity rate by about 12.4 percentage points (95% CI, 5.3 to 19.6). A doubling in the relative number of stay-at-home devices lowered it by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI, -2.9 to -1.2). The business closures and out-of-home activity restrictions decreased the positivity rate, accounting for approximately 25% of the decline observed in April and May 2020.

Conclusion: Policy measures decreased the likelihood of positive results in COVID-19 tests. These specific policy tools may be successfully used when comparable health crises arise in the future.

Figure

Citywide trends in the positivity rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and business activity and stay-at-home indices, New York City, March 3–May 31, 2020. The positivity rate gives the percentage of daily tests that had a positive result; the business activity index gives the number of visitors to points of interest (such places as stores, restaurants, parks, hospitals, or museums) in a zip code; and the stay-at-home index counts the number of smartphone devices that did not leave their home location. Both indices are averaged across zip codes (weighted by population), are lagged 3 to 7 days before the day of the test, and are normalized to equal 100 in the prepandemic period of February 4 through 6.