Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies

Abstract

The persistence and intensity of the current severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, and the advanced planning required to balance competing concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, may depend in part on whether the virus is sensitive to seasonal changes in environmental variables, such as temperature and humidity. Although multiple studies have sought to address possible effects of these variables on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, results of these studies have been varied. It is possible that at least some of the differing results are due to insufficient understanding of atmospheric science, including certain physical and chemical principles underlying selected meteorological variables, and how global seasons differ between tropical and temperate zones. The objective of this brief perspective is to provide information that may help explain some of the differing results of studies regarding the influence of environmental variables on transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. This information may promote better variable selection and results interpretation in future studies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other infectious diseases.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS–CoV-2; dewpoint; seasonality; temperature; transmissibility.